Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag
Wheat The wheat market experienced a couple of days with decent gains during regular trade only to close with minor gains in an overall sideways pattern this week. All three wheat contracts ran up to their 50-day moving averages but failed to punch through them. This led to more technical selling in the Jan. 10 session. Weekly export inspections were well below expectations coming in at 260,000 metric tons (9.6 million bushels). This was the lowest weekly total of the marketing year, which gave the market pause early week.
Wheat The wheat complex finished 2018 on a lower tone when it was reported that Russia may offer rail subsidies through the summer months to get more eastern wheat moving to their southern ports. This led to losses in New Year's Eve trade that saw Minneapolis contracts reaching new contract lows and Kansas City and Chicago contracts reaching their lowest levels since late January 2018.
Wheat The wheat complex was under pressure all week but saw some buying at the new contract low of $5.445 in Minneapolis. The U.S. dollar continues choppy trade, experiencing a fifth session of back-and-forth 50-point moves. The Dec. 27 session was lower to the $96 level. Matif wheat futures have backed off of recent two month highs to $203.25 per metric ton.
Wheat Russian news and export numbers drove the market this week. Early week, it was announced that Russia will be holding an export meeting Dec. 21. There was speculation that Russia may curb exports as their supply diminishes because of the frantic pace they have been moving wheat this year. There was similar speculation a few months ago that this may happen at a similar meeting, but it did not.
Wheat The wheat markets found support early week from the action in the soybean complex as Chinese-U.S. talks from the G-20 summit appeared to be fruitful. Weekly export inspections were 473,000 metric tons, which was at the high end of trade estimates which built the case for Dec. 3 gains.
Wheat The wheat market started off the week with nice gains in holiday-thin trade volume on news that excessive rains in the wheat growing regions of Argentina would affect quality. Other reports of fungal disease affecting wheat quality came in from Brazil's primary wheat growing area that also experienced heavy rainfall. The wheat complex did an about-face in Nov. 13 trade heading lower as weekly export inspections were at the low end of expectations coming in at 342,000 metric tons, or 12.6 million bushels.
Wheat The wheat market traded choppy to sideways this week as numerous news items gave the bull camp and the bear camp ammunition. Minneapolis December touched and backed off of $5.89 for the third time in the last two weeks but did manage to maintain $5.80. The Chicago and Kansas City markets acted in similar fashion with $5.10 to $5.13. December resistance levels are holding firm but psychological support at the $5 levels are holding in Chicago.
Wheat The wheat market traded very choppy this week as poorer than expected conditions ratings fought with a surging U.S. dollar.