Wheat
For the week ending March 5, May Minneapolis lost 8 cents, May Chicago lost 32.5 cents and May Kansas City lost 22.5 cents. As of 10 a.m. March 6, wheat trade was down 4 to up 4 cents.
Wheat traded lower March 2, as it followed the weakness in row crops. Wheat exports continue to disappoint as the U.S. dollar remains near multi-year highs. March 2 export inspections came in below the amount needed to keep pace with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's projection. The weather forecast is not doing much to help wheat price, either. Low temperatures create uncertainty, with some winter kill likely to be uncovered in spring, but the forecast is calling for beneficial moisture and warmer temperatures late in the week.
Cold weather in the forecast for the middle of the week supported wheat as the markets closed with gains across the board. Alternatively, the southwest plains are seeing beneficial weather with needed precipitation followed by warmer temperatures into the weekend. Wheat is fundamentally cheap, with many contracts near their lows. The U.S. dollar has remained sideways near its recent highs, but March 6 brought some weakness that helped support the wheat market. State National Agricultural Statistics Service offices released winter wheat crop ratings March 2, most of which were similar to last month's. The crop ratings will draw more focus when the crop begins to emerge from dormancy.
March 4 and 5 brought lower wheat prices, including a new contract low for May Chicago. Spillover pressure from soybeans and continued strength in the U.S. dollar led to the losses. The U.S. dollar is trading around 11-year highs and set new contract highs again March 5. The currency keeps exports limited as March 5 export sales report again showed decent sales, but lagging shipments. On March 5, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization released an early estimate for 2015 world wheat production at 720 million metric tons, below USDA's 725 million metric tons, but still a very large number.
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USDA estimated wheat export shipments pace for the week ending Feb. 28 at 16.5 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for wheat to 623.4 million bushels, compared with 879.4 million last year at this time. Wheat export sales pace for the week ending Feb. 28 was estimated at 17.3 million bushels. This brings wheat's export sales to 801.3 million bushels, compared with 1.052 billion last year. With 13 weeks left in wheat's export marketing year, shipments need to average 21.3 million bushels and sales need to average 7.6 million to reach USDA's 900-million-bushel estimate.
Corn
The corn market remained range-bound and traded sideways again last week, with the lack of fresh news. The corn futures continue to struggle to create buying interest and the pressure in the other grain commodities and strength in the dollar is not helping. Traders are also looking ahead to this week's monthly USDA report, end-of-the-month acreage and quarterly stocks report. As of the March 5 close, the May contract was down 2.75 cents for the week.
The corn market opened the week losing 5 cents. Selling pressure came from talk that U.S. corn is higher priced, compared with foreign competition. There was also some long position liquidation and spillover pressure from the double-digit losses in the soybeans. The weather remains near ideal in South America and it appears the trucker strike is coming to an end. The futures had a small uptick on March 3, with winter weather disrupting transportation and lack of farmer selling. Short covering was also noted in the market.
The corn futures struggled on March 4, with losses in the soybean and wheat markets, while the dollar was strong and traded to new highs. The ethanol report was also disappointing, with corn use down from the previous week and stocks 29 percent larger than one year ago, while ethanol processors remain in the red for the eighth week in a row. The futures were close to unchanged on March 5. Any upside was limited with another strong day in the dollar and growing crude oil stocks. Stocks rose another 10.3 million barrels last week and grew to a new record at 444.4 million barrels. Traders are also looking ahead to next the USDA report and estimates are at 1.826 billion bushels for stocks, with USDA posting a number of 1.827 billion last month. The May futures were down 5 cents on the morning of March 6, with the sharp gains in the dollar.
Ethanol production for the week ending Feb. 27 averaged 931,000 barrels per day, down 1.69 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.517 million barrels. Corn used in production the week ending Feb. 28 is estimated at 97.76 million bushels and needs to average 101.88 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.25 billion bushels. Stocks were 21.528 million barrels, down 0.31 percent from the previous week.
USDA's export inspections report was friendly for corn at 50.4 million bushels, above the 39.2 million needed to meet USDA's projection. Corn export sales were estimated at 32.6 million bushels, above the needed amount of 14.1 million to stay on pace with USDA's estimate of 1.75 billion. The shipments came in at 54.3 million bushels, above the 39.3 million needed to keep pace with USDA projections.
Soybeans
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As of the March 7 close, May soybeans were 46.25 cents lower for the week, while November soybeans were down 31.5 cents. At 10 a.m. March 6, March soybeans were trading 4.5 cents lower and the November contract was down 5 cents.
Higher prices the week ending Feb. 28 kept soybeans on the defensive to start the week with mostly lower closes March 2 and 3. News out of South America was not friendly to soybean prices, as the truckers strike was winding down with significantly fewer roadblocks than the previous week. The harvest continues to move forward in Brazil, with Informa Economics reported Brazil's export price 49 cents below the U.S. gulf on March 2 and 30 cents below on March 3. The demand for soybeans remains strong but is showing signs of slowing as the South American harvest moves forward, though this week's inspections again came in well above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection.
On March 4, May soybeans closed lower for the third day in a row as the South American harvest weighs on the market. The truckers strike in Brazil has run its course, and conditions remain generally good. The Mato Grosso region of Brazil has seen good harvest weather, though rain could cause some delays late last week. Southern Brazil and Argentina have had good growing conditions overall, with a few parts of Argentina a little too wet and more rain in the forecast. Strong demand had been supporting soybean prices, but doubts are growing as it appears China is turning its focus to the South American crop.
Soybeans were lower again March 5, as South American harvest progress continues to weigh on the market. Demand for U.S. soybeans is slowing, as shown by lighter export sales last week. The sales and shipments last week were still well above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection.
USDA reported soybean export inspections pace for the week ending Feb. 25 at 23.3 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for soybeans to 1.539 billion bushels, compared with 1.355 billion last year at this time. Soybean export sales pace for the week ending Feb. 28 was estimated at 18.4 million bushels. This brings soybean's export sales to 1.750 billion bushels, compared with 1.623 billion last year. With 26 weeks left in soybean's export marketing year, shipments need to average 9.626 million bushels and sales need to average 1.55 million bushels to reach USDA's estimate of 1.79 billion bushels.
Barley
USDA reported barley export inspections pace for the week ending Feb. 28 at 151,295 bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for barley to 6.92 million bushels, compared with 6.56 million last year at this time.
Barley export sales were reported at 100,000 bushels, bringing this year's total to 6.4 million bushels, compared with 7.6 million last year at this time.
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For the week ending March 5, cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were unchanged at $2.70 per bushel, and there was no bid for malting barley.
Durum
USDA reported durum export inspections pace for the week ending Feb. 28 at 3,674 bushels.
There were no export sales reported the week ending Feb. 28 for durum.
For the week ending March 5, cash bids for milling quality durum were at $9.50 per bushel in Berthold, N.D., while the Dickinson, N.D., bid was at $9.75.
Canola
For the week ending March 5, the May canola contract lost $18.90 to $450.40 (Canadian). Canola was lower for the week with weakness in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex, providing significant pressure. Losses in palm oil and rapeseed and some strength in the Canadian dollar provided additional pressure this week, as we saw canola drop below support at $464.10 on March 4. Slow producer selling and spring road bans provided some underlying support.
For the week ending March 5, cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., decreased 49 cents to $16.14 per hundredweight.
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Sunflowers
USDA estimated soybean oil export sales pace for the week ending Feb. 28 at 5.6 thousand metric tons. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for soybean oil to 579 thousand metric tons, compared with 549.5 thousand, for last year.
For the week ending March 5, May soybean oil futures were $1.41 lower to $31.57. Cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were 10 cents lower on the week at $19.35 per hundredweight.
