NORTON: Late-season rains delay harvest
CRESTWOOD, Ky. -- Fields are wet. Thankfully, much of the harvest is complete, but some steady rains have kept farmers out of the fields. According to Saskatchewan Agriculture, "rain was general throughout the province." The Central Plains in the...
CRESTWOOD, Ky. - Fields are wet. Thankfully, much of the harvest is complete, but some steady rains have kept farmers out of the fields. According to Saskatchewan Agriculture, “rain was general throughout the province.”
The Central Plains in the U.S. saw plenty of moisture, as well. Extended forecasts call for warmer and drier conditions by the middle of the month, which should allow fieldwork to finish up.
Wheat markets experienced little change from a week ago. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s report on grain stocks and production showed larger-than-expected quarterly stocks (2.527 billion bushels was 125 million bushels above pre-report analyst expectations) and production just below the August estimate.
USDA showed total wheat production at 2.310 billion bushels, 250 million bushels more than a year ago.
Spring wheat harvest in Saskatchewan is lagging the normal pace, at 67 percent compared to 81 percent for the five-year average.
Durum markets have firmed modestly. There is little excitement to report, as the harvest is nearly complete.
Saskatchewan Agriculture showed durum harvest progress was lagging the average pace at 68 percent, compared to 84 percent for the five-year average.
Despite some recent weakness in the broader oils markets, canola prices have stayed firm. Demand has been strong, and while outside pressure from soybean and palm oils is present and the outlook remains for a record canola crop, canola markets did not break much.
Saskatchewan Agriculture showed 61 percent of the crop was harvested compared to the five-year average pace of 80.4 percent.
In North Dakota, 96 percent is done, which is right in line with the normal pace. Most of the U.S. crop was done before rains hit, as opposed to the farmers north of the border.
Peas and lentils
Rains have delayed the end of pea and lentil harvest in Canada. Most of these crops have been harvested and the market has a decent concept of this year’s supply. Saskatchewan’s lentil harvest is 94 percent complete and field peas are sitting at 97 percent complete.
Farmers’ deliveries were not impacted by the rain, but the quality and rating of the crops remaining in the field will likely be lower because of the late rains. Much of the market’s attention is now shifting to demand and the global fundamentals.
India is a key grower and consumer of peas and lentils and hopes are high for their production, which should curb strong demand for Canadian supplies.
Saskatchewan mustard seed harvest is in its final stages, with 71 percent completion reported in last week’s publication. This rate is behind the five-year average pace of 87.8 percent, as recent rains have made fieldwork difficult. But one thing is certain, this year’s mustard seed crop in Canada will far surpass last year.
Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch is forecasting total production at 234 thousand metric tons compared to 123,000 metric tons a year ago. Average grower-bid prices should drop to between $730 and $760 per metric ton in 2016 to ’17 compared to 985 dollars per metric ton in 2015 to ’16.
Despite rains hampering harvest of most agricultural products in Canada, barley harvest is tracking with the average pace. Saskatchewan Agriculture reported 79 percent completion compared to 80.2 percent for the five-year average.