The Sept. 1 stocks data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture was surprisingly bullish for soybeans and corn. So Thursday's World Agriculture Supply & Demand Estimates Report had to adjust those balance sheets to reflect old crop supplies that were known since the end of last month.
Despite that data, the market saw a less supportive corn balance sheet and soybeans were about as expected. For wheat, domestic stocks remain comfortable and the October WASDE held few surprises. In the end, corn prices led agricultural commodity markets lower following the WASDE Report's release.
Other key issues to note for this week are cold and snowy conditions in parts of the Upper Midwest as well as trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. Each of these have the potential to provide future support to prices.
Wheat
Wheat markets were lower with USDA estimates showing an increase in both domestic and global ending stocks. Even with lower domestic production, the U.S. is seeing increased supplies on greater carry-in from 2018/19. Additionally, demand dropped off with reduced feed and export demand for 2019/20. World supplies increased modestly with higher carry-in stocks for the 2019/20 crop year. In the U.S., spring wheat harvest is slowly working toward the finish line with some less-than-helpful weather.
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USDA reported just 91% completion compared to 90% a week ago and 99% for the five-year average pace. Do not look for much additional progress in next week's report with adverse weather continuing to slow field work. Winter wheat planting in the U.S. has progressed well, to date: the USDA showed 52% of the crop planted compared to 53% for the five-year average pace. Just over a quarter of the crop has emerged.
Durum
The durum market remains elevated from the lows, though a continued rally could not be sustained. U.S. durum stocks were reduced from the September WASDE Report, dropping to 49 million bushels (from a previous 54 million bushel estimate).
Canola
The canola market has tracked with the broader soybean oil market and stepped higher from a week ago. Weather has been supportive locally, as well. But the bigger issue is the tightening soybean supplies in the U.S. leading the complex higher.
Trade talks could result in a deal that would resume soybean trade with China. However, the two sides have been close in the past, only to break without a deal. In the meantime, Canada has not resolved its own geopolitical issues with China that would bring canola demand back.
Barley
U.S. barley stocks increased slightly despite lower production (on area reduction despite a higher yield than the September WASDE Report). Lower feed demand allowed ending stocks to increase to 97 million bushels compared to 93 million bushels in last month's report.
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Mustard seed
Mustard seed markets have been quiet ahead of the colder weather. It is unclear just how the crops will be impacted.
