Hot and dry forecast

Wheat

In June 27 trade, Minneapolis wheat futures blew through $6.80 long term resistance closing 17 higher. Not to be outdone June 28 trade blew over the $7 mark closing 23 higher. At one point in June 29 trade, September Minneapolis was 60 cents higher making it the biggest single day move since 2010. The U.S. Dollar declined another nearly 2.00 full points on the week which lent further support to the wheat complex.

Stats Canada released its planting intentions report June 29. The report showed a 3.7 percent decrease in all wheat planted acres which was a larger decrease than the trade had expected. Spring wheat acres increased 2.5 percent to 15.8 million acres while durum declined 15.9 percent to 5.2 million acres.

Bullish 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts position a heat ridge over the Dakotas through July 12 have also taken rain out of this area over the next seven days. September Minneapolis traded 60 cents higher at one point before settling 31 higher on the day. Current estimates show a potential decline of 100 million bushels from last years 493 million bushels. Private analysts are now stating that U.S. hard red spring wheat production could be as low as 340 million bushels or 153 million bushels less. There is significant risk that this number could be reduced another 50 million bushels depending on how July weather plays out.

The quarterly USDA planted acreage and stocks report was released June 30. Spring wheat acres are projected at 10.9 million, which was below trade expectations. All wheat acres are projected at 45.66 million, the lowest since 1919. Winter wheat acres came in at 32.84 million, right at trade expectations.

All wheat ending stocks were pegged at 1.18 billion bushels, which hit the high end of the pre-report estimates. Wheat stocks are up 21 percent from a year ago. Still, quarterly use for wheat was pegged at 472 million bushels, up 19 percent from a year ago.

USDA condition ratings from June 26 are the lowest since the 1988 drought year.

Corn

Corn prices fell close to last fall's lows and was looking to find support with the acreage report. This did not happen as the USDA surprised the trade with an acreage number close to 91 million acres. Row crop traders were acting cautious this week and were not sticking their necks out in front of an always unpredictable June 30 acreage report. This report did not do any favors for corn prices and producers though as they raised acres and stocks. The rest of the grains held up corn prices after the report, and the market quickly went back to trading weather. For the week ending June 29, July corn was up 1.25 cents and December corn was up 3.5 cents

Corn acres were pegged at 90.89 million acres, up 890,000 acres from USDA's prospective plantings report in March. The corn acreage was near the high end of the pre-report estimates. Corn acreage is down over 3 million acres from last year. Analysts expected the USDA planted corn acres at 89.9 million acres with estimates ranging from 89 to 91 million. The USDA March 31 estimate was at 90 million acres.

Quarterly corn stocks for June 1 came in at 5.225 billion bushels, 514 million bushels higher than a year ago. This is the largest number on record. The March-May use was 3.4 billion bushels, up 290 million bushels from the same quarter last year. Analysts expected the June 1, 2017, corn stocks to come in at 5.13 billion bushels. The USDA June 1, 2016, quarterly stock number was at 4.71 billion bushels

Corn condition ratings stayed the same as last week, even though the trade was expecting a 1 to 2 percent increase. As of June 26, corn was rated 67 percent good to excellent versus 67 percent last week and 75 percent last year. Corn was rated 8 percent poor to very poor versus 8 percent last week and 4 percent last year.

Adverse weather could get end users to start covering some of their needs. Weather is starting to heat up and could provide a spark. The hot and dry 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have not caused enough concern yet, but it is starting to get the attention of the trade. This will be especially true if this current extended forecast stays hot and dry through the weekend.

Soybeans

Soybeans found support this week from spring wheat's big move and is starting to get a little help from the extended hot and dry forecast. The trade was being patient as they anxiously waited to see what acre number the USDA came out with on the June 30 report. The trade was expecting a higher acreage number at around 90 million acres. The USDA surprised everybody by keeping soybean acres close to the same as the March planting intentions number. 90 million acres was built into this market, so a lower acreage number gave this market a boost. This still far surpasses the previous record of 83.4 million acres planted in the United States last year.

For the week ending June 29 and prior to the report, July soybeans were up 11.5 cents and November soybeans were up 13.75 cents

The USDA put soybean planted acres at 89.51 million acres. Average Analysts guesses were at 89.95 million soybean acres versus 89.5 million in the March 31 forecast. Estimates ranged from 88.5 to 90.5 million acres.

Soybean quarterly stocks totaled 963 million bushels, which was slightly below the pre-report average estimate. Analysts expected the June 1, 2017, soybean stocks to come in at 983 million bushels versus last year's USDA June 1, 2016, number of 872 million bushels. Total quarterly use from March to May was 775 million bushels, up 18 percent from last year.

The third crop rating of the season showed a 1 percent decrease in good to excellent ratings, and continues to show how spotty rainfall coverage has been. As of June 26, soybeans were rated at 66 percent good to excellent versus 67 percent good to excellent the week prior and 72 percent last year. Soybeans were rated 8 percent poor to very poor versus 7 percent last week and 5 percent last year. After these ratings, the Progressive Ag yield model was close to the same as the week prior and is still below USDA's 48 bushel per acre estimate.

During the week prior to June 13, funds added a few more short net positions of soybeans to around 87,000 contracts, up from 80,000 the week prior. The August 2 lows of $9.035 is major support for November soybeans. Resistance is $9.405 and then $9.58 for November soybeans.

Canola

Canola futures rolled from July to November on June 28. For the week ending June 29, November canola futures in Winnipeg were up $9.20 Canadian to $484.40 per metric tons Canadian. The Canadian dollar traded up .0151 at 0.7696. This brings the U.S. price to $16.91 per hundredweight U.S.
Velva, N.D., $18.01 per hundredweight, new crop $16.19

• Enderlin, N.D., $18.56 per hundredweight, new crop $16.89

• Hallock, Minn., $18.42 per hundredweight, new crop $16.22

• Fargo, N.D., $18.65 per hundredweight, new crop $16.10

Stats Canada released their planted acreage report June 29 showing a record high 22.8 million canola acres, a 12.1 percent increase from 2016. Saskatchewan and Alberta showed 13.6 percent and 16.5 percent increases while Manitoba planted 1.1 percent less. This compares to a 9.9 percent increase from the March planting intentions report.

Barley

Cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were at $2.05, while malting barley received no quote. Berthold bid is $2.00 and CHS Southwest bid is at $2.40 in New Salem, N.D.

Stats Canada reported barley acres at 5.8 million, down 9.7 percent from 2016.

Durum

Cash bids for milling quality durum are $7.00 in Berthold and at $6.75 in Dickinson.

Stats Canada reported durum planted acres down 15.9 percent to 5.2 million acres.

Sunflower

Cash sunflower bids in Fargo were at $15.60. Oct.-Nov. $16.60.
Soybean oil for the week ending June 29 was 81 cents higher at $32.42 on the July contract.