Wheat, corn, soybean prices end week low
Wheat The wheat market started out the week by falling lower out of the gate the night of Aug. 30 with the market focusing on bearish fundamentals. However, as some of the pressure let up on neighboring grains, short covering set in to help push ...
The wheat market started out the week by falling lower out of the gate the night of Aug. 30 with the market focusing on bearish fundamentals. However, as some of the pressure let up on neighboring grains, short covering set in to help push the Kansas City Board of Trade and Chicago Board of Trade higher for the day. The Minneapolis Grain Exchange was unable to turn higher with harvest pressure keeping them slightly lower for the day. Exports didn't lend any direction to the market, though they were higher than expectations. A lower U.S. dollar did step in to help wheat keep gains for the day.
Wheat fell lower Sept. 1 on a lack of fresh news. Traders continue to focus on the bearish fundamental situation. World wheat supplies remain plentiful and thus there has been a lack of demand for U.S. wheat. U.S. wheat tends to be seen as too expensive to compete in the global market, and so lower prices could stimulate some fresh export demand. Spring wheat harvest continues to make progress adding to the downward movement on the MGEX. Lending pressure to the market is bearish spillover from neighboring grains.
Wheat fell modestly lower midweek with a lack of fresh news to move the market. Neighboring grains held pretty steady, or with slight losses, thus the market was able to finish with only minor losses. The MGEX continued to receive additional pressure as spring wheat harvest continues. In other news, the Australian wheat crop looks like it might be smaller than originally thought which might help to boost world wheat prices eventually.
Wheat continued to move lower Sept. 3 on technical selling after hitting contract lows. Adding to this pressure was spillover from neighboring grains with both corn and soybeans moving lower for the day. Wheat has been on a downward movement for quite some time and with nothing bullish to push neighboring grains higher and no fresh bullish news of its own, wheat is trapped in its position as a follower. Export sales did little to influence the market coming in on the lower end of expectations.
Corn futures were 19 cents lower this week December compared with the close Aug. 28. The corn market traded the weather forecast this week. The near term weather is decent and this big crop continues to get bigger.
To start the week, the corn market opened slightly lower and closed mixed from 1 cent lower to 4 cents higher. The market opened slightly lower on the weakness in the soybean and outside markets. At midday, the market came back to trade mixed and traded that way for the session, with the lack of any fresh news.
Corn opened slightly lower Sept. 1 and closed near session lows in a range from 10 to 14 cents. The market opened lower on the weakness in the soybean and outside markets. The USDA crop condition report was seen as bearish to corn.
The corn market started the session lower Sept. 2 and extended the session losses as we proceeded through the day. Most of the selling was tied to carry-over selling from the lower soybean complex. The selling pressure continues to come from the lack of any threat to the crop.
The corn market opened and closed slightly lower Sept. 3 in a range from 3 to 5 cents. The market opened slightly lower on the weakness in the soybean market and the short-term friendly weather forecast.
The market opened slightly lower Sept. 4, with the weakness in the outside and soybean markets.
The week started with soybeans closing sharply lower, influenced by losses in crude oil and equities. There was some economic uncertainty in the market which had speculators liquidating positions in order to trim their exposure to risk; news broke that China might walk away from some of their over the counter hedges on energies and grains. On the fundamental side, traders were looking at the favorable weather forecast and taking some added premium from frost concerns out of the market. The weather forecast calls for average to above-average temperatures in the Midwest for the six- to 10-day forecast, which is helping to calm frost concerns and allowing the market to fall lower.
The market finished lower once again Sept. 1 with traders eyeing the favorable weather conditions. The September contract month is nearing expiration and with that the tight old crop situation will have less of a presence in the market. Frost concerns also have been a bullish feature in the market. However, with no threatening weather in the forecast, traders are removing premium.
Soybeans closed modestly lower on a lack of fresh news Sept. 2. Despite some bullish fundamentals Sept. 3, the market finished lower for the day with traders eyeing the long Labor Day weekend. Traders consolidated positions, which forced the market moderately lower. Fundamentally, the day had some bullish support with export sales coming in ahead of expectations and another export sale to China. The export sales report seemed to be put on the back burner because a couple of private analysts come out this week with their September crop production estimates almost two bushels higher than USDA's.
USDA reported last week's barley export inspections at 339,000 bushels with all of the barley going to Japan. This brings the year-to-date barley export shipment pace to 710,000 bushels compared with 1.5 million bushels for last year at this time. No barley exports were reported for last week. This puts the year-to-date export sales pace for barley to 1.7 million bushels compared with 7.9 million bushels for this same time last year.
USDA is reporting barley harvest at 46 percent complete compared with 27 percent for last week and 81 percent for the five-year average. All states are lagging behind in harvest progress by 20 percent to 50 percent except for Washington, which is at about its five-year average pace. Barley's crop condition rating dropped 2 percent to 78 percent good to excellent, 18 percent fair and 3 percent poor.
Sept. 3's barley loan deficiency payment for Cass County, N.D., was reported at 15 cents (now 6 cents off high). Progressive Ag recommended taking the barley loan deficiency payment Sept. 2 at 18 cents. Cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis remain at $1.80. Malting barley bids remain with no quote.
USDA estimated last week's durum shipments at 308,000 bushels with all of the durum heading for the Dominic Republic. Last week's durum export sales pace was estimated at 1.3 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for durum to 14.7 million bushels compared to 11.4 million bushels for this same time last year.
As of Aug 30, 86 percent of North Dakota's durum crop was turning compared with 83 percent last week and 93 percent for the five-year average. Nine percent of the states durum was harvested compared with 4 percent for last week and 58 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's durum crop condition rating improved 2 percent to 83 percent good to excellent, 16 percent fair and 1 percent poor.
Sept. 4's durum loan deficiency payment for Cass County was at 16 cents at its high. Progressive Ag is not recommending taking durum loan deficiency payments at this time.
Current crop condition ratings for the major dry bean producing states are North Dakota: 62 percent good to excellent, 30 percent fair and 8 percent poor to very poor, unchanged from last week; Minnesota: 66 percent good to excellent, 27 percent fair and 7 percent poor to very poor, off 3 percent from last week; Nebraska: 67 percent good to excellent, 21 percent fair and 12 percent poor to very poor, off 1 percent from last week; Colorado: 75 percent good to excellent, 24 percent fair and 1 percent poor, off 19 percent from last week; and Michigan: 43 percent good to excellent, 36 percent fair and 21 percent poor to very poor, up 2 percent from last week.
Canola futures on the Winnipeg, Manitoba, futures exchange closed sharply lower for the week. For the week ending Sept. 3 most of the canola contracts were posting $20 to $27 (Canadian) losses.
Most of the selling this week was tied to spill over selling from a sharply lower U.S. soybean complex. Additional selling was in reaction to the decline in China's stock markets Aug. 31. Traders have concerns that China soon will start to cancel earlier purchases of canola because of their recent financial issues. Harvest is drawing nearer and that has resulted in an increase in farmer selling, and that has added pressure to the canola market this week. The canola market traded down below $400 Sept. 2 in the November contract. This is where technical buying stepped in to help the canola market stabilize. Thursday's cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., were at $15.83.
As of Aug 30, 48 percent of North Dakota's canola crop was swathed compared with 25 percent last week and 90 percent for the five-year average. Eight percent of the states canola was combined compared with 2 percent for last week and 52 percent for the five-year average. Minnesota's producers are reporting harvest progress at 6 percent compared with 3 percent last week and 60 percent for the five-year average.
As of Aug 30, 95 percent of North Dakota's sunflower crop was blooming compared with 91 percent for last week and 99 percent for the five-year average. Seventeen percent of the states sunflowers had flowers dried or dropping compared with 5 percent for last week and 60 percent for the five-year average. Sept. 3's cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were at $13.20 for old crop and $13.30 for new crop.