Wheat
The wheat markets started the week higher in all three exchanges. The wheat stumbled slightly around midsession. Early support was a result of spillover buying strength from a higher overnight session as well as from a lower start to the dollar.
By midsession, the market had started to lose it gains with most of the selling tied to another disappointing export shipments report. With the dollar high and with most of the major exporting countries having better than expected production estimate for last year, it has been hard for the U.S. wheat market to capture any attention. Iraq was in tendering for wheat and the entire 300,000 metric-ton sale was split evenly among Australia, Canada and Romania. But as the case has been, fund buying stepped in toward the end of the session and helped wheat to push to end with modest gains.
Chicago Board of Trade March closing up 5.75 cents Dec. 22 to end at $5.69, Kansas City Board of Trade March was up 7 cents to end at $5.90, and Minneapolis March was up 7.75 cents to end at $6.33. Cash Minneapolis Grain Exchange 14 percent protein wheat bids ended 2.75 to 7.75 cents higher to end at $7.73.
The session had the wheat market opening the session sharply lower Dec. 23 and maintaining those lower levels of trading throughout most of the early session. By midsession, most of the wheat contracts were posting double digit losses and it was not looking good for wheat. The lack of demand and poor exports continued to pressure the wheat markets. But trading was thin and lack luster at best, so once the corn market started to rally it took the wheat exchanges with it. Fund buying also stepped in during the last half of the session and that helped wheat recover to end with modest gains.
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CBOT March was up 6 cents Dec. 23 to end at $5.75, KCBT March was up 6.25 cents to end at $5.955, and MGEX March was up 2 cents to end at $6.35.
Wheat opened steady to slightly lower Dec. 24 with much of the early pressure coming from thin trading. The wheat market was able to firm early in the session though and those gains were extended once the other grains traded higher. Fund buying continues to be the main supporting factor as many funds traders try to even up positions ahead of year end. A lower dollar also added some light support to the wheat.
CBOT March was up 6.5 cents to end at $5.8175, KCBT March was up 7.25 cents to end at $6.0125, and MGEX March was up 7.25 cents to end at $6.415. MGEX cash bids for 14 percent protein wheat closed up 7.5 cents to end between $7.6675 and $7.8175.
USDA put last week's wheat export inspections estimate at 9.8 million bushels. This compared with 12.4 million bushels for week before and 19.1 million bushels for last year. This does bring the year-to-date wheat shipments total to 648.7 million bushels compared to 773.3 million bushels for last year at this time. Wheat's export sales pace was estimated at a disappointing 9.3 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for wheat to 785.3 million bushels compared to 1.07 billion bushels for the year before. USDA is projecting wheat exports to be 1 billion bushels this year. This means that there are 214.7 million bushels of wheat left to sell to make pace, or sales need to stay in the 10 million to 11 million bushels area to make pace.
Corn
The week started with March corn opening up a quarter cent but then turning to trade with light losses for most of the session. Fund buying stepped in on the close to push corn to end the session 1 cent higher. Trading activity was light and very narrow. The lower dollar was supportive, while crude oil and other outside markets were weak. Weekly export inspections were better than expectations at 31.01 million bushels, while rains in Argentina have eased some crop concerns there. We will see continued light trade for the next two weeks, but we would expect to see more volatility than what we saw Dec. 26.
March corn was up 1 cent to $3.8175. December corn was up 2 cents to $4.27. Cash bids in Minneapolis were up 1 cent to $3.3175.
March corn opened up ¾ cent Dec. 23 and had light gains for the first half of the session. Strong fund buying later in the session resulted in closing prices 11 to 13 cents higher. Lower crude oil and a higher dollar weighed on the market early, while tight farmer selling and continued dryness in Argentina were supportive factors. Volume was light for most of the session, so when new buying interest stepped in, the market quickly rallied with few sellers to stand in the way.
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March corn was up 13 cents to $3.9475. Dec corn was up 12.75 cents to $4.3975. Cash bids in Minneapolis were up 13 cents to $3.4475.
Corn traded on both sides of unchanged early in the session Dec. 24, but by the middle of Dec. 26's short session spillover strength from the rallying soybean complex spilled over to the corn to help corn firm. Trading was thin and lack luster though for most of the session as many traders remain out of the pits. Technically, corn has put in a very good performance as it tries to test the physiological $4 resistance level. A break and close above that level could result in this market rallying higher. Fundamental news is not supportive as stocks appear to be increasing due to declining demand. Gains were also limited by another round of large losses in the crude oil market.
March corn was up 2.5 cents to end at $3.9725. July corn was up 2 cents to end at $4.1725. Cash corn bids in Minneapolis were 3.25 cents higher to end at $3.48.
USDA estimated last week's corn export sales pace at 21.7 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for corn to 817.7 million bushels compared with 1.5 billion bushels for last year at this time.
Soybeans
Soybean gapped up about 15 cents higher on the open Dec. 22. The momentum slowed some midday, but strong buying brought more strength into the close, with contracts closing up 16 to 20 cents. The soybean market continues to benefit from tight farmer selling and strong demand; although the weekly export inspections were in the lower range of expectations at 27.8 million bushels. There has been precipitation in some regions of South America, but this didn't seem to weigh on this market at all today. Soybeans are now more than $1 higher than the lows put in two weeks ago.
March soybeans finished up 18 cents to end at $8.905. Nov soybeans gained 17.25 cents to close at $9.1625. Minneapolis cash bids were up 18.25 cents to $8.265.
Soybeans opened with light losses and were narrowly mixed for most of the day Dec. 23. But strong buying brought more strength into the close, with contracts closing up 11 to 14 cents. The soybean market continues to benefit from tight farmer selling and strong demand, but lower outside markets put pressure on early. The crush report was bearish, but little effect was felt in the market with the focus on chart-based buying emerging late in the session.
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March soybeans finished up 14.5 cents to end at $9.05. Nov soybeans gained 12.5 cents to close at $9.2875. Minneapolis cash bids were up 14.5 cents to $8.41.
Soybean complex started the session higher Dec. 24 and that helped the soybean complex to rally early in the session. Midway through the short session, soybeans had reached the higher side of the session and just sort of stalled out. Dryness concerns from South America (mainly from Argentina) and strong demand for U.S. soybeans continues to help the soybeans hold firm. This was aided by a weaker dollar. Fund buying from traders who are trying to even up position ahead of year end was also noted Dec. 26.
January soybeans closed up 14.75 cents to end at $9.1575. July soybeans closed up 15.25 cents to end at $9.4225. Minneapolis soybean cash bids were 14.75 cents higher to end at $8.5575.
USDA estimated last week's soybean export sales pace at an impressive 21.5 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export sales total for soybeans to 729.0 million bushels compared with 760.1 million bushels for last year at this time. USDA is projecting this year's soybean export sales pace to be 1.02 billion bushels. So with only about 4 months of the soybean marketing year under our belt, soybean sales are sitting at 71 percent of USDA expectations for the year. Seems logical that USDA will have to increase soybeans export projection
Barley
USDA estimated last week's barley shipments at 227,000 bushels. This compares with zero for the week before and 15,000 bushels for the previous year. Barley shipments are estimated to be 10.1 million bushels compared with 23.5 million bushels for last year at this time. There was not barley exports reported for last week. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for barley to 10.2 million bushels compared with 40 million bushels for last year at this time. Cash barley bids in Minneapolis remain at $2.60 for feed and $5 for malting.
Durum
USDA put last week's durum shipments pace at 12,000 bushels. All of the bushels were shipped to Mexico. No durum export sales for last week were reported. This brings the year-to-date durum export sales pace to 13.9 million bushels compared with 34.7 million bushels for last year at this time.
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Canola
The Winnipeg, Manitoba, canola futures market closed higher for the week. Support was a result of spillover support from the higher U.S. soybean complex. Rumors that China is in looking to buy canola also continue to help give the market underlining support. Position squaring ahead of the year end was also seen helping to drive the canola market this week. Trading is thin as many traders are absent from the market because of the holiday season. Cash canola bids in Velva, N.D. were reported at $14.46 Dec. 24.
Sunflowers
Cash sunflower bids on Dec. 14 in Fargo, N.D., were reported at $11.80.
