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Weather Talk: Warmer-than-average temps a sign of warmer summer?

Our region had six consecutive months of consistently warmer-than-average weather going back to last September, and March is not behaving any differently.

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Our region had six consecutive months of consistently warmer-than-average weather going back to last September, and March is not behaving any differently.

The warm temperatures appear to be related to two things: El Nino and a warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). El Nino warms the tropical Pacific Ocean and the warm phase of the PDO warms the ocean water across the North Pacific. 

In the past, when a strong El Nino has occurred along with a strongly warm PDO, there has been a high incidence of warm temperatures in our region.  For this warm weather to continue into summer, there would likely also need to be a lack of spring and summer rainfall. 

Summer temperatures in our region are usually more closely tied statistically to soil moisture than any other factor.  This begs the question, “Will the spring and summer be dry?” Unfortunately, analysis of past El Nino and PDO conditions offer no good statistical relationship to summer rainfall. 

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