A very common question asked of us in the Weather Center lately is, “When November weather is mild, what does that mean for the rest of the winter?”
The answer may disappoint you. There is no statistical relationship between mild Novembers and the temperature the following winters.
Climatologist Daryl Ritchison tabulated the 20 warmest Novembers on record and followed each with the average temperatures over the next three months and the resulting chart was pure chaos.
Some mild Novembers were followed by mild winters. Some were followed by cold winters. Some winters were average. Some of the winters started mild and finished cold and some were the other way around.
There simply is no relationship between November temperature and winter temperature. One weak relationship is that when Novembers are very snowy, there is a tendency for the following winters to be colder, but even that can be reversed.
