Since this warm mild weather began last week, many people have asked me about “gut feelings” (theirs or mine), as to how much winter weather remains. The premise being that a number of people “have a feeling” we have seen the last of snow and cold.
A good weather forecaster does not use “gut feelings” to make a forecast because such a premonition would be baseless. Colder weather and even snowstorms could happen with a change in the Jet Stream. The physics models we use to make our seven-day forecasts actually run out to more than two weeks. It’s just that they are terrible at such a range.
Other forecasting tools, such as circulation anomalies, are sending mixed signals, as they often do in spring.
So this meteorologist is comfortable saying any spring/summer forecast is as good as anyone’s gut feeling, which is essentially worthless. So enjoy the mild weather. It might last, but it might not.
