The fall of 2015 continues to be extremely warm overall. September was 6.5 degrees above average. October was 5.3 degrees above average. So far, the first week of November has been above average. The temperature pattern seems to be in a pattern of varying back and forth between above-average and near-average with little or no weather that has been colder than average. This pattern is likely to continue for weeks if not months. With a large area of warmer than average water off the coast of the Pacific Northwest plus the strong El Nino, there is a lot of warm water across the Pacific in position to influence weather coming our way. The Polar Jet Stream is the wild card. A southward shift of a large low-pressure system near Iceland could shift the jet and bring Arctic Air our way. Chances are that won’t happen any time soon, though.
