Warmer and drier weather expected for the southern U.S. Plains next week should jump-start the harvest of the region's hard red winter wheat crop and ease concerns about grain quality, meteorologists said on Friday.
"By late next week we will be in the upper 80s and 90s (degrees Fahrenheit). That will certainly help dry things out," said Andy Karst, a meteorologist with World Weather Inc.
Hard red winter wheat, grown in the Plains and used for bread, is the largest U.S. wheat class, representing about 40 percent of the overall crop.
The harvest is off to a slow start in Texas and Oklahoma due to wet conditions. The Texas wheat crop was 11 percent harvested by May 29, compared with the five-year average of 17 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported.
Severe flooding that swept eastern Texas this week occurred outside of the state's major wheat areas. But lighter rains in the Texas Panhandle and most of Oklahoma were enough to prevent harvest by making fields treacherous for heavy equipment.
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The moisture also raised fears that mature wheat might sprout in the fields, sharply degrading grain quality. Sprouting was a problem in some areas last year, but this year's rains have been less punishing, said David Marburger, a small grains specialist with Oklahoma State University's extension service.
"If the rains would continue and the wheat has been ready to harvest for a while, crop quality would start declining with more sprout damage and lower test weights. However, with the warmer and drier (conditions) next week, I suspect we will see little sprout damage for most of the state," Marburger said.
The USDA has projected Oklahoma's average wheat yield this year at 32 bushels per acre, the highest in four years if realized, and the yield in Kansas, the top U.S. winter wheat producer, at 43 bushels per acre, a six-year high.
The crop's protein content, however, remains uncertain, since wheat tends to gain yield at the expense of protein. Hard red winter wheat is graded on the basis of protein, with higher levels typically commanding a higher price.
"The big question is what is our quality going to be, protein-wise? I think it's going to wait until after harvest to see exactly what we've got," said Aaron Harries, vice president of research with Kansas Wheat, a trade group.
The harvest in southern Kansas should start in mid-June, Harries said.
