Wheat
Wheat started out lower from spillover, selling from a lower overnight session and the selling followed through to continue lower for the rest of the session. Additional selling was a result of sharp losses in other grains.
By July 22, wheat had moderate gains because of technical selling and the wrapping up of the winter wheat harvest. In July 21's crop progress report the harvest is estimated to be at 71% complete which is allowing the market to rebound.
On July 23, wheat closed sharply lower on spillover after a volatile trading day. Wheat began the day moving sharply lower on spillover from corn. Also lower crude oil and commodity wide liquidation was weighing on prices.
On July 24, wheat was able to finish with modest gains on technical buying. With a trend of recent losses, the market was due for a bounce and traders took to squaring short positions.
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Export inspections were at 28.4 million bushels, which was bullish as only 19.6 million bushels was needed to stay on pace for the marketing year. Also, preliminary expectations were for 11 million to 16 million bushels.
In their weekly crop condition and progress report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated winter wheat harvest progress at 71 percent complete compared to 62 percent for last week and 79 percent for the five year average. Spring wheat currently is 95 percent headed compared to 84 percent for the week ending July 19 and compared to 94 percent for the five year average.
Corn
Corn began by closing sharply lower as favorable weather conditions continuing to apply pressure to the market. The favorable weather conditions have lead to speculation of improving crop conditions. This has opened the market up to speculative selling and profit taking.
On July 22, the market finished sharply lower on favorable weather and the outside markets. Weather conditions continue to look favorable and the improvement in crop conditions in Monday's report was more than expected adding to the bearish pressure on the market. In addition, crude oil was lower, at one point showing losses of $5.
By midweek, corn finished with only slight losses. The market opened sharply lower, with carry-over selling from the overnight session causing most of the selling pressure but also adding light pressure was fund liquidation and ideal weather conditions. Outside markets continue to be bearish with crude oil moving lower and a stronger U.S. dollar. Corn fell through support lines by mid morning but rebounded on short covering with traders thinking that the market is oversold.
July 24, corn finished with gains as short covering pushed corn slightly higher. There are still plenty of bearish fundamentals, however, weighing on prices. Weather conditions continue to be favorable and there is still a trend of commodity wide liquidation.
Export inspections were at 29.8 million bushels, with preliminary expectations of 25 million to 36 million bushels. This is below the 56 million bushels needed to stay on pace for the marketing year.
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In their weekly crop condition and progress report, USDA estimated percent silking to be at 34 percent compared with 13 percent for last week and 60 percent for the five year average. Corn's crop condition ratings improved 1 percent in the good to excellent category to now be estimated at 65 percent good to excellent, 25 percent fair, and 10 percent poor to very poor.
Soybeans
July 21, soybeans finished sharply lower continuing on the trend of the week ending July 19 as follow-through selling pressured prices. Technical pressure also added bearishly to the market, with prices pushing down to support lines. In addition favorable weather also provided pressure with expectations that recent weather conditions have improved crop conditions. There is speculation that we will see a 1 percent improvement in crop rating in the weekly Crop Progress report. Adding some underlying support, but having little influence, was the outside markets as the dollar was weaker and higher crude oil. In other news, USDA announced a sale of 10.65 million bushels to China for the 2008 to '09 marketing year.
By July 22, soybeans finished moderately higher on a technical bounce with no fresh news to influence the market. With a lack of news the market is focusing on soybeans lagging crop development and the idea that the market has been oversold and due for a bounce. July 24's crop progress report showed a 2 percent improvement in crop conditions but with blooming still lagging far behind the five-year average this had little impact on the market. Weather forecasts for the most part continue to look favorable. However, some hot dry weather in the delta region could move up into the southern Corn Belt and this provided some underlying support.
By midweek, the market had turned and soybeans finished sharply lower on a lack of fresh news and commodity wide liquidation. Soybeans opened sharply lower from the overnight with no fresh bullish news to pull the market higher. Also outside markets lent some pressure with crude oil moving lower and a stronger U.S. dollar. At midday, soybeans trimmed some losses on spillover but were unable to keep moving higher without its own support.
July 24, the market closed sharply lower following the trend from July 23 on a lack of fresh bullish fundamentals to pull prices higher. After a couple of weeks of gains the market is just correcting itself. Also adding to pressure is favorable weather conditions, with no concerns about the weather being too dry or overly wet there is a lack of support.
Export inspections were reported to be at 3.56 million bushels. This was bearish as 15 million bushels was needed to stay on pace for the marketing year. Preliminary expectations were for 7 million to 11 million bushels. Primary destinations were China and Mexico. Export Sales were reported at 27 million bushels. This is well above expectations of 9.2 million to 16.5 million bushels and well above what is needed to hit the projection for this marketing year. However, there is still a possibility of cancellations before the end of the marketing year on Sept. 1.
In their weekly crop condition and progress report, USDA estimated soybeans percent blooming is at 45 percent currently compared to 26 percent for the week ending July 19 and 65 percent for the five year average. Soybean's crop condition ratings improved by 2 percent and are now estimated to be at 61 percent good to excellent, 28 percent fair, and 11 percent poor to very poor.
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Barley
As of July 20, 93 percent of the nation's barley crop was headed compared to 78 percent for last week and 93 percent for the five-year average. The nation's barley crop declined 9 percent to end the week at 58 percent good to excellent, 33 percent fair, and 9 percent poor to very poor. North Dakota, Montana and Washington are the states that are seeing the biggest decline in crop ratings. At the rate the crop is going, we might see a dramatic decline in the barley that can grade malting. USDA estimated the barley shipments at 32,000 bushels with Mexico the only destination for the week ending July 19. The barley export sales pace was estimated at 15.1 trillion metric tons with Japan the only destination
Durum
As of July 20, 86 percent of North Dakota's durum crop was headed compared to 72 percent for last week and 74 percent for the five year average. Eighteen percent of the states durum was turning compared with 4 percent the week ending July 19 and 12 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's durum crop condition rating is estimated at 26 percent good to excellent, 45 percent fair, and 29 percent poor to very poor, a decline of 3 percent from last week. USDA estimated durum shipments during the week ending July 19 at 1.029 million bushels with the entire shipment going to Italy. Last week's durum export sales pace was estimated at 100,000 bushels.
Canola
Canola futures on the Winnepeg futures exchange closed lower for the week. The market was pressured by technical selling as well as from spillover selling from a sharply lower U.S. soybean complex and energy complex. Close to ideal growing conditions is also keeping the canola market in check. Although crop conditions are starting to decline in North Dakota and that is starting to weigh on traders' minds. As of July 20 North Dakota's canola crop was reported to be 18 percent turning compared to 4 percent during the week ending July 19 and 23 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's canola crop is rated at 56 percent good excellent, 38 percent fair, and 6 percent poor to very poor a decline of 13 percent.
Sunflowers
As of July 20, North Dakota's sunflower crop was 4 percent in bloom compared with 2 percent during the week ending July 19 and 7 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's sunflower crop condition rating is estimated at 63 percent good to excellent, 35 percent fair, and 2 percent poor to very poor, a decline of 2 percent from the week ending July 19. July 24's cash sunflower bids in Fargo closed with old crop bids ending at $27.60 while new crop bids closed at $25.60. A weaker soybean oil futures market and lower crude oil market pressured the sunflower cash bids for the week ending July 26.
