The already protracted Northern Plains corn harvest may have been brought to a final standstill for the winter by Blizzard Alvin, which hammered the region with heavy snows for three days during the Christmas weekend.
"The general feel is it's going to be a tough go from here," says Jay Nissen, president of the North Dakota Corn Growers Association.
Analysts agree. They predict anywhere from 600 million to 900 million bushels of Midwestern corn will remain on the stalks until spring and that up to 100 million bushels of corn might be lost in the storm's wake, which climbed north through the nation's midsection. Five percent of the U.S. corn crop still stands unreachable in the fields of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. Of these states, North Dakota farmers have had the toughest time bringing in their corn.
Despite all this, the 2009 corn crop is expected to be the second largest on record.
Slow going
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According to USDA's final crop progress report of the year, published Dec. 20, more than 30 percent of the North Dakota corn crop still stood in the fields, while South Dakota and Wisconsin each had 12 percent left, Minnesota had 7 percent left and Illinois had 5 percent left.
Had it not been for several days of good harvest weather before the Dec. 23 arrival of the blizzard, it might have been worse.
Farmers in North Dakota had been able to run their combines long hours, making the most progress of the states still harvesting corn, jumping from 60 percent complete to 68 percent complete in one week.
But many farmers, particularly in the northern half of the state, have corn that tests at more than 30 percent moisture.
"I think that the snow has pretty much ended the efforts, at least in the northern tier of the state," Nissen says. "I know that a lot of people put a hard effort in, right in front of the blizzard to get what they thought they could harvest and dry out of the field."
South Dakota has been a bit more fortunate with dry-down, according to Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union.
"It's been around that 18.5 (percent), 19 percent range," he says. "We're going to see average weights probably in that 52-, 53-pound range."
No-go in snow
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Exactly when farmers might be able to get their corn off likely will depend upon the 2010 snowmelt. Even a warmer January, as some weather analysts are predicting, may not allow them to get heavy equipment into the fields.
"My experience in the past is, once you get 2 feet of snow, even in a warm January, it's only going to settle that," Nissen says. "And then once it does settle, it's going to be a hard pack where you bust through."
Also, he expects the end rows that were filled with blowing snow to hamper harvest efforts.
"You just can't get in there and maneuver. That equipment just won't do it," he says.
Sombke says the 2010 planting season is hanging on the prospect of a good, quick snowmelt in late February or March.
"But if this thing holds off until the first of April to really start melting away, we're going to see probably double the amount of prevent plant acres that we saw last year," he says.
