DULUTH, Minn. -- It rained in Duluth on Dec. 1, there's no snow on the ground downtown and high temperatures this week are topping 40 degrees -- above zero -- with no cold in sight.
What's now the strongest El Nino on record is doing exactly as predicted, spurring unusually warm temperatures across northern Minnesota and leaving winter sports in the lurch in most areas.
November was the fourth-warmest on record in Duluth, the National Weather Service reports, and September-October-November was the third-warmest fall since records have been kept starting in 1870.
The forecast calls for continued above-freezing temperatures during the day -- with highs into the 40s in some areas and lows only in the 20s -- well into December. That's about 15 degrees above normal and more like early November.
"Looks toasty all the way through next week. No cold seen on the horizon," said Carol Christensen, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Duluth.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a significantly warmer-than-average trend through at least mid-December. And although there's less reliability in longer-term forecasts, experts say El Nino's impact on weather patterns will continue, with warmer-than-average temperatures predicted through February.
Areas that did receive snow this week are seeing it melt away. Most lakes haven't frozen safely, and some haven't frozen at all. Outdoor skating rinks are covered in grass. Snowmobile trails remain unsafe in many areas due to obstructions and open water in swamps and creek crossings.
Temperatures even at night have been mostly too warm to make snow with snow guns at ski hills.
"El Nino has been a challenge to snowmaking for sure. But if it means daytime highs during the holidays and mid-January around 30 degrees rather than 20 below, I think I'll take it," said Jim Vick, marketing director at Lutsen Mountains ski area. The ski hill had three runs open for Thanksgiving weekend, and there are plans to have more open this weekend and to be open every day after Dec. 11.
At Spirit Mountain in Duluth, snow guns ran for a few nights in mid-November, providing enough snow for the annual Snocross snowmobile races.
But until temperatures drop to about 20 degrees or below for an extended period, snowmaking is nearly impossible.
"It's not acting like winter in Duluth is supposed to act," said Brandy Ream, executive director of Spirit Mountain. "We're going to be open this weekend, but limited. We're trying to protect the snow we do have because it doesn't look like we're going to get any more for a while."
Spirit Mountain will open on a daily basis starting Dec. 11 "if we can make more snow," Ream added.
Snowmakers at Chester Bowl have been silent, too, where opening day is supposed to be Dec. 12. That now seems unlikely, staff notes, and it's uncertain when it might be rescheduled.
November ended nearly 8 degrees warmer than normal, once considered a huge variation from normal. October was 3.1 degrees warmer than normal and September 5.9 degrees warmer than normal. The last colder-than-normal month in northern Minnesota was February.
Since late summer, scientists and forecasters have predicted that the current El Nino warming of the Pacific Ocean would have a major influence on North American weather patterns. Indeed, in northern Minnesota, as in the past, the El Nino has brought warm Pacific breezes instead of Arctic blasts.
One key measure of El Nino is the warmth of water in the central Pacific. In 1997, the previously-strongest El Nino, those temperatures rose to 2.8 degrees centigrade above average. That measurement hit 3.1 degrees this November, the highest ever.
The El Nino is expected to continue through the winter. And that's on top of the long-term trend of later winters and earlier springs, documented by later ice-over dates and earlier ice-out dates.
Snow lovers, take heart. Some forecasters are predicting a cold wave arriving just before Christmas, although it's too soon to say if more snow will come by then.
