Wheat
The market bounced higher July 13 after a trend of losses. For almost a month and a half, the wheat market has been moving in a downward trend. The market has been seen as oversold and finally bounced higher. Pressure from the winter wheat harvest and waiting for the USDA reports released July 10 kept the market from bouncing earlier. Winter wheat harvest is expected to have been making progress and is reported at 66 percent complete, and with the July reports out of the way with no significant surprises, the market had the chance to bounce higher and keep gains. Providing some underlying support were the outside markets with the dollar moving lower for the day.
The market turned around July 14 and wheat fell lower on thoughts that recovery bounce from the day before was overdone. The market was oversold and so it needed the bounce, but there aren't fundamentals to keep the market higher. There is some short covering present with winter wheat harvest starting to wrap up. Weather conditions continue to look favorable, which is adding to the bearish pressure. Outside markets only lent a little help with the dollar moving lower for part of the day to help trim some losses.
Midweek wheat started out the day higher out of the overnight, bouncing on oversold conditions. The market still needed some gains to pull it out of the oversold conditions. Helping the momentum was the outside markets with the dollar moving lower and crude oil moving higher. Moving toward midday and the close gains were trimmed as corn and soybeans fell bearish. Winter wheat harvest is a helping factor because as it wraps up more buying interest will return to the market. Some showers and thunderstorms could slow harvest, though not enough to make a large impact. Fundamentally, there isn't much driving the market; world stocks are comfortable and the U.S. spring wheat crop is progressing.
July 16 began with wheat moving lower in the overnight, but it broke higher into the day. The market is still in recovery phase, and short covering is helping to push prices higher. Gains were trimmed at the close with spillover pressure from other crops pulling prices neutral to slightly bearish. Other than harvest, there really aren't many fundamentals driving the market, and right now, technical buying is driving the upward trend.
ADVERTISEMENT
USDA export inspections were below expectations at 9.63 million bushels. Preliminary estimates were for 12 million to 20 million bushels. Export sales were within expectations at 15.5 million bushels. However, this is below the 15.8 million bushels needed to meet the revised USDA projection of 925 million bushels for the 2009 to '10 marketing year.
Corn
Corn futures were lower this week by about 10 cents (December) compared with the close July 10. The reports that came out this week were bearish to the corn market, although export sales were good and seen as friendly.
The market traded slightly higher July 13 to finish with 1.50- to 3.50-cent gains. The corn market opened lower and then firmed up to end the session at the highs of the day. The corn market was influenced by the outside markets and the strength in the wheat market. The USDA released its inspection report and the crop progress report, and both reports were viewed as neutral to the corn market.
The market traded slightly higher July 14 to finish with 6-cent gains. The corn market opened higher and then firmed up to end the session at the highs of the day. The corn market was supported by the USDA crop progress report.
The July 15 market opened 2 to 3 cents higher and held small gains early before a lack of continued buying interest left the corn market sliding to close with 6- to 9-cent losses. The outside markets were supportive with the dollar back at less than 80 and crude oil gaining more than $2. The stock markets also were higher with the Dow up more than 200 points. However, the corn market was unable to sustain its recent gains because of the unchanging bearish fundamentals.
The market opened 5 cents lower and recovered briefly before selling pressure pushed the corn market lower into the close with 11- to 12-cent losses. Corn contracts made new lows today, with the December contract breaking through and closing below support at $3.29. Weekly export sales were decent for corn, but still slightly behind USDA projections. Outside markets were mixed during the day and provided little direction, while the fact that the soybeans did not violate support may be the only good news for the day in the row crop markets.
Soybeans
ADVERTISEMENT
Soybeans started out the week lower because of profit taking. With the July reports out of the way and concerns over stocks subsiding, traders are squaring positions. Not helping the downward trend was a favorable weather forecast. Rain in the Delta and scattered showers in the forecast are viewed as favorable.
The July 14 market saw a bounce after a couple of days of some sharp losses. Traders had pushed prices lower on profit taking towards the end of last week and into July 13, but losses were overdone, so the market saw buying interest return. Fundamentally, there isn't much driving the prices higher other than some remnants of concerns over tight stocks and strong export demand. The USDA announced a sale of 4.78 million bushels of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2009 to '10 crop year. Weather conditions continue to look bearish as does crop conditions. The outside markets were bearish for the day.
Midweek soybeans started out the day moving higher out of the overnight with help from strong outside markets and neighboring grains. Crude oil was moving higher and the dollar lower for the day. An export sale announcement helped the momentum. Private exporters reported a sale of 4.15 million bushels of soybeans to China for the 2008 to '09 marketing year. But under the outside markets, there are not much fundamentals to help soybean keep its gains. Weather conditions in the Midwest continue to look favorable, though brief hot temperatures could develop in the south and western regions. The Delta region that has struggled with hot, dry temperatures will continue to receive a break with increased shower activity and cooler temperatures.
Soybeans continued to move bearish July 16 on technical weakness and a lack of bullish news to bring buying interest back to the market. Though morning export sales were strong, traders are focusing on the good crop conditions and favorable weather forecasts. In global news, China announced it will release some of its soybean stocks next week, adding to the downward momentum.
Barley
The July 13 crop progress report put the U.S. barley crop at 55 percent headed while the five-year average is 80 percent. The crop is rated 78 percent good to excellent compared with 77 percent last week and 67 percent good to excellent at this time last year.
The USDA export inspections report showed shipments of 36,000 bushels of barley last week. Total barley export shipments for the marketing year are now 330,000 bushels compared with 1.09 million bushels at this time last year.
Ag Canada is projecting 2009 Canadian barley production at 8.775 million metric tons, down from the April projection of 10.8 million metric tons and last year's production of 11.781 million metric tons. Canadian carry-out is expected to be 1.5 million metric tons, down from 2.1 million metric tons last year. Cash barley bids in Minneapolis showed feed barley bids at $2.20.
ADVERTISEMENT
Canola
The July 13 crop report for North Dakota pegged the canola crop at 68 percent bloom compared with 82 percent at this time last year and a five-year average of 88 percent.
Ag Canada is projecting 2009 Canadian canola production at 10.3 million metric tons, up from the April projection of 10.15 million metric tons but down from last year's production of 12.643 million metric tons. Canadian carry-out is expected to be 700,000 metric tons, down from 2 million metric tons last year. Cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., were at $16.81 July 16.
Sunflowers
Sunflower cash bids in Fargo, N.D., were at $13.40 July 16 with new crop bids at $13.85.
Durum
The North Dakota durum crop was 32 percent headed as of July 12, compared withi 67 percent at this time last year and a five-year average of 57 percent.
The latest Ag Canada supply and demand report projected 2009 Canadian durum production at 4.3 million metric tons, a drop from the 5.1 million metric tons projected in April and the 5.52 million metric tons produced last year. Ending stocks are projected to be 1.45 million metric tons, down from the April projection of 2.1 million metric tons and the prior year carry-out of 1.85 million metric tons. There were no new export sales for the week. Cash bids for milling quality durum are in the $5.60 to $6 range in North Dakota.
ADVERTISEMENT
Dry beans
Bids for pinto beans have been steady to firm with cash prices in the $26 to $29 range being reported for old crop. Dwindling old crop supplies and anticipation of smaller new crop supplies should continue to support prices in the near term before new crop beans start to roll in. Acres are down from 2008, and locally heavy rains have damaged some acres in the northern red river valley. As of July 12, the beans in North Dakota were 10 percent bloom compared with 12 percent last year and a five-year average of 32 percent.
