Wheat
The wheat exchanges opened the short trading week with less-than-expected gains after seeing a strong overnight performance. The poorer-than-expected opening was a result of news that China's central bank raised the reserve requirement, which means the banks are being forced to hold more of their money and slow down leading. But the market was able to shake this news off fairly early, and once the buying started, it was hard to slow it down until wheat was 30 cents higher. The buying was spurred on by continued dry conditions in the Southern Plains as Oklahoma and Texas have not reported any measureable rain for the past two weeks.
The April 19 session had wheat open higher with continued support coming from drought concerns in the Southern Plains and the lack of planting progress in the Northern Plains. To top it off, there is starting to be chatter about potential drought concerns in parts of the EU, specifically France and Germany. Last year, the world was short of wheat while the U.S. had abundant supplies. Now it appears the U.S. supply of wheat is going to get tight and the world supply does not look to be getting any to flush.
Wheat opened the April 20 session higher with strength continuing to come from the adverse spring weather. The buying spurt was enough to push most of the wheat contracts to resistance levels. This is the level where wheat stalled out. Once the buying surge ended the market came vulnerable to selling pressure and with the corn market struggling, it was easy for the selling to spill over and push wheat off of its highs. By the close, wheat was mixed.
USDA reported last week's wheat's export inspections pace at 35.7 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for wheat to 1.062 billion bushels compared with 749.8 million bushels for last year at this time. Last week's wheat export sale pace was estimated at a combined total of 11.2 million bushels with 5 million bushels being old crop and 6.2 million bushels being new crop. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for wheat to 1.265 billion bushels compared with 797.3 million bushels for last year at this time. With only six weeks left in the marketing year, wheat shipments need to average 35.5 million bushels and sales need to average 1.7 million bushels to make USDA's projection of 1.275 billion bushels.
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Corn
To start the week, corn opened lower, but firmed to end with gains. Corn was under pressure from negative outside markets, as the dollar was very strong and crude oil was down $2.50. China also raised interest rates over the weekend, which added pressure. The export inspections estimate came in below estimates to add additional weakness. But the market was able to firm up with the cool and wet weather forecast for the next two weeks, which will continue to delay planting.
Corn opened higher April 19 but traded both sides of unchanged for the session, ending lower. The old crop contracts ended the day lower with the lack of fresh news and buyers remaining on the sidelines. But new crop continued to find support as December made new contract highs. Cold and wet weather across the Midwest and snow in the Northern Plains continue to stall planting progress. The forecast also calls for several more rain systems moving across the Midwest in the next 10 days and keeping farmers out of the fields. On average, 42 percent of the corn crop is planted by May 1 and producers see plantings before May 10 to 15 as important dates to avoid production issues.
Corn opened sharply higher April 20, but ended sharply lower as the May contract closed 35 cents off its highs. The market found support early from the higher overnight session and positive outside markets. The weather continues to add support. But the market ran out of buyers once December made another new high. One forecast released late morning said there would be a break in the weather in eight days, and that triggered profit taking. The ethanol production numbers also were disappointing. Ethanol production for the week ending April 15 averaged 856,000 barrels per day. This was down 4.68 percent compared with last week and up just 2.88 percent compared with last year. Total ethanol production for the week was 5.992 million barrels, which was the lowest weekly production since September. Corn used in last week's production is estimated at 89.88 million bushels as compared with 99.88 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5 billion bushels. Ethanol stocks, however, were 20.091 million barrels, which is down 424,000 barrels from last week.
USDA's export inspection report was seen as bearish corn. There were 32.2 million bushels of corn reported shipped, below the 43.3 million bushels needed to meet USDA's projection of 1.95 billion bushels. This was below the pre-report estimates of 35 million to 43.3 million bushels. Last week's export sales report estimated corn export sales pace at 33.7 million bushels, which was above the 18.3 million bushels needed to meet USDA projection of 1.95 billion bushels. This was at the low end of the estimates at 31.5 million to 43.3 million bushels and friendly corn. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for corn to 1.589 million bushels compared with 1.509 billion bushels one year ago. Total shipments this week were at 36.8 million bushels, below the 43.1 million bushels needed this week.
USDA's crop progress report stated 7 percent of the nation's corn crop is planted, compared with 16 percent last year and 8 percent for the five-year average.
Soybeans
Soybeans opened the week with small gains to small losses but firmed to post gains soon after the opening. Early pressure for the old crop months came from slow demand as China seems to be pulling back on buying soybeans (because of poor soybean crush returns). The new crop months were pressure by thoughts that with planning concerns in much of the Northern Plain states, those acres will be switched to soybeans. General pressure was a result of the Standard and Poor's report, which stated that the U.S. economy situation continues to be worse than expected which in turn forced them to put the U.S. credit rating at negative from stable.
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The April 19 session had soybean open with small gains, but ending mixed as the old crop contracts slipped on export cancellations from China while the new crop rallied in an attempt to keep up competitive with corn. Reports confirming China canceled another six to eight cargos of South American soybeans and deferred another 20 cargos to later dates pressured the old crop soybeans. China sighted poor crush margins as the reason for the cancellations and deferments. The new crop soybeans were supported by corn consistently trading to new highs this week as trades keep putting in incentives for producers to plant corn no matter what the conditions.
The April 20 session had soybeans higher throughout the session, ignoring the selling pressure from the softer corn and wheat market. Support was due to sharply lower session in the US dollar. As the U.S. dollar gets weaker, U.S. products become more attractive to foreign buyers. Additional support was due to the fact that China has been canceling South American cargo shipments of soybean, not U.S.
USDA reported last week's soybean export inspections pace at 14.2 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for soybeans to 1.337 billion bushels compared with 1.293 billion bushels for last year at this time. Last week's soybean export sales pace was estimated at a combined total of 20.4 million bushels with 12.8 million bushels being old crop and 7.6 million bushels being new crop. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for soybeans to 1.504 billion bushels compared with 1.339 billion bushels for last year at this time. With only 20 weeks left in the marketing year, soybean shipments need to average 12.2 million bushels and sales need to average 3.8 million bushels to make USDA's projection of 1.58 billion bushels.
Barley
As of April 17, barley planting progress was estimated at 11 percent compared with none last week, 19 percent for last year and 16 percent for the five-year average. USDA estimated last week's barley shipments pace at 8,000 bushels. This brings the year-to-date export sales report for barley to 5.3 million bushels compared with 3.6 million bushels for last year at this time. Last week's barley export sales pace for barley was estimated at 100,000 bushels. This brings the year to date export sales pace for barley to 4.6 million bushels compared with 4.3 million bushels for last year at this time. Cash barley bids in Minneapolis improved this week putting feed bids at $5.10, while malting barley bids improved to $6.20.
Durum
USDA estimated last week's durum shipments pace at 2.5 million bushels. Last week's durum export sales pace was estimated at 500,000 bushels. This brings durum export sales pace for the year to 34.8 million bushels compared with 36.6 million bushels for last year at this time. As of April 20, cash bids for milling quality durum improved $1 this week to $9 in Berthold, N.D., while bids in Dickinson, N.D., improved 10 cents to $8.50.
Canola
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Canola futures on the Winnipeg, Manitoba, exchange closed the week ending Wednesday with $5.70 (Canadian) gains. The old crop canola market followed the U.S. soybean market higher this week while the new crop months continued to be supported by production concerns as cold wet conditions continue to keep producers in the Northern Plains out of fields. Gains were kept in check by a stronger Canadian dollar. Technical pressure also was noted in the canola market early in the week. The April 20 cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., were at $26.99 while new crop bids were $25.45.
Sunflowers
Cash old crop sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were at $33 while new crop bids were $27.05.
