KIEV - Favourable weather in November and December improved conditions of Ukrainian winter wheat but traders and analysts say Ukraine should be ready for a smaller harvest and exports next year.
Severe drought in the summer and first half of autumn had forced farmers to reduce the area sown for the 2016 winter wheat crop by 1 million hectares, raising concerns that next year's harvest could barely cover domestic needs.
"The condition of winter grains has greatly improved within the past several weeks thanks to warm and wet weather," a major foreign trader said.
"In 2016, we cannot expect as high a wheat harvest as we have this year, but it would be enough to ensure domestic supply and to sell some volumes to the nearest markets," another added.
According to the agriculture ministry, 12 percent of Ukraine's winter grains had not sprouted by mid-December while the area of non-sprouted crops was 42 percent a month earlier.
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"We have passed through the critical phase and our outlook is now more optimistic," minister Oleksiy Pavlenko said this week.
He declined to forecast the 2016 winter wheat output, while traders and analysts see the harvest at 17 to 19 million tons.
Ukraine harvested up to 28 million tons of wheat in bunker weight this year, according to the ministry's data.
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Traders said a higher than expected area of sprouted crops prompted them to revise Ukraine's 2016 wheat harvest forecast.
"A month earlier we saw the harvest (of wheat) at about 18.5 million tons. As of today, our forecast exceeds 19 million tons," a trader said.
Farmers could harvest 5.8 million hectares of winter wheat next year with a 3.3 ton per hectare yield, he added.
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Another trader that the harvest was likely to exceed 17 million tons but "they are ready to revise it up if favourable weather continues".
"This means that Ukraine will have 5 to 6 million tons of wheat for export next season," he said.
Traders said last month that Ukrainian wheat exports in the 2016/17 season could fall to about 3.5 million tons due to poor weather, from expected sales of 16.5 million tons in 2015/16.
Analyst ProAgro said that even the most favourable weather could reduce the harvest to no more than 20.5 million tons.
"If farmers have enough resources, most of the problem areas of winter crops will be reseeded next spring," it said.
