Wheat
For the week ending March 19, May Minneapolis gained 5.25 cents, May Chicago gained 10 cents and May Kansas City gained 11 cents. As of 10 a.m. March 20, wheat trade was up 8.5 to 12.5 cents.
Short covering provided support as wheat opened the week with gains, and it moved to its highest close in three weeks. Weakness in the U.S. dollar helped March 16, though the currency remains strong overall. Weather concerns provided additional support with rain forecast for both the Southern Plains, where more will be needed, and the eastern Midwest, where it is already too wet. The weekly export inspections were below the amount needed to keep pace with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's projection. Wheat finished lower March 17, giving back most of the March 16 gains. World winter wheat conditions are good overall, with recent rains in Ukraine beneficial.
Wheat trade was quietly mixed through much of the session March 18 before the Federal Reserve issued a statement on interest rates that caused the U.S. dollar to plummet. The sharp losses in the dollar led to a strong close for the wheat market.
Wheat started March 29 higher, but finished mostly lower outside of the Chicago contract by closing bell. The U.S. dollar recovered a portion of the March 18 losses, pressuring the wheat market. A weather system moving across the U.S. is bringing needed rain to the Southern Plains, though more will be needed. Meanwhile, the same system is likely to add moisture to the already too wet Delta region. The north-central U.S. looks to have dryness concerns, as well, with the U.S. Drought Monitor showing moderate drought conditions with no relief in the five-day forecast. The March 19 export sales report showed sales above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection, while shipments lagged behind again.
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USDA estimated wheat export shipments pace for the week ending March 13 at 19.1 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for wheat to 658.4 million bushels, compared with 913.8 million last year at this time. Wheat export sales pace for the week ending March 13 was estimated at 14.4 million bushels. This brings wheat's export sales to 832.1 million bushels, compared with 1.085 billion last year. With 11 weeks left in wheat's export marketing year, shipments need to average 21.9 million bushels and sales need to average 6.17 million to reach USDA's 900-million-bushel estimate.
Corn
The corn market traded sideways to lower last week. The focus going forward will now be the acreage and quarterly stocks report that will be released at the end of the month, with expectations that acres will be down from last year. As of the March 19 close, the May contract was down 7 cents for the week.
The corn futures lacked any buying interest to start the week and early weakness came from crude oil trading to six-year lows. Funds remain sellers of corn, and U.S. corn is at a premium to foreign competition. Traders are also concerned about feed demand with the expanding bird flu. Additional weakness came from disappointing export inspections and the weather in South America remains favorable.
The corn futures were under pressure March 17, while trading through support at six-week lows and to levels last seen five months ago. Early selling came from talk that China is buying corn from the Black Sea and South Korea is sourcing corn from South America. Planting progress has started in the South, but remains slow with excessive moisture, while Texas is 11 percent planted versus an average of 25 percent and Louisiana is zero percent planted versus an average of 20 percent.
The corn futures were slightly higher the morning of March 18 and remained there into the afternoon. Early support came from talk of smaller acreage estimates for 2015. The Farm Futures magazine survey shows corn acres down more than 2 million acres from last year, but an 18 percent increase in sorghum acres. There will be a number of private estimates in the next week before the end of the month USDA report. Additional support came from the ethanol report that showed corn use up last week and stocks were lower. Crude oil broke higher and the dollar lower late in the session with the Feds announcement that interest rates will remain the same for the near term, which also spilled over to the commodities.
Corn traded lower March 19, following an unimpressive weekly export sales report. The sales were above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection, but shipments lagged behind again. The outside markets pressured with gains in the U.S. dollar and another round of losses in crude oil. Weather is becoming a factor as planting approaches. The southeast Corn Belt is seeing rain hinder fieldwork while Minnesota and the eastern portion of the Dakotas see moderate drought conditions developing.
Ethanol production for the week ending March 13 averaged 947,000 barrels per day, up 0.32 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.629 million barrels. Corn used in production the week ending March 13 is estimated at 99.44 million bushels and needs to average 100.12 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.2 billion bushels. Stocks were 20.82 million barrels, down 1.67 percent from the previous week.
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USDA's export inspections report was bearish for corn at 28.9 million bushels, above the 41.4 million needed to meet USDA's projection. Corn export sales were estimated at 19.8 million bushels, above the needed amount of 15.2 million to stay on pace with USDA's estimate of 1.80 billion. The shipments came in at 27.3 million bushels, below the 40.4 million needed to keep pace with USDA projections.
Soybeans
As of the March 19 close, May soybeans were 12.25 cents lower for the week, while November soybeans were down 7 cents. At 10 a.m. March 20, May soybeans were trading 15.25 cents higher and the November contract was up 13.25 cents.
Soybeans opened the week with losses on March 16 and fell further to five-month lows on March 17. The ongoing harvest in South America pressures the market as fresh supplies are likely to hamper demand for U.S. beans. The monthly National Oilseed Processors Association crush report was released March 16 and showed that 147 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in February, the second highest February total on record. This was near January's pace and remains near the highest activity level of the past five years. March 16 export inspections were below the same week last year but still ahead of the amount needed to keep pace with the USDA's projection for this year.
Soybeans were higher March 18, bouncing off March 17 lows. The harvest in Brazil could see some rain delays last week, but it is two-thirds complete, with Argentina's harvest set to pick up. The expectation remains for a record South American crop, and U.S. soybean acres are expected to increase. Exports have been strong so far, but it is nearly impossible to predict China's demand. Sharp losses in the dollar after a Federal Reserve announcement provided underlying support to commodity markets.
Soybeans traded higher overnight following sharp losses in the U.S. dollar late March 18. But the market gave back the gains and finished lower by the end of the March 19 session, as the dollar recovered a portion of its losses. The March 19 export sales report was decent, with both sales and shipments above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's estimate. South America's harvest continues to move along and conditions remain favorable overall with some drier weather coming as we head into the weekend.
USDA reported soybean export inspections pace for the week ending March 13 at 21.5 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for soybeans to 1.585 billion bushels, compared with 1.43 billion last year at this time. Soybean export sales pace for the week ending March 13 was estimated at 12.6 million bushels. This brings soybean's export sales to 1.767 billion bushels, compared with 1.633 billion last year. With 24 weeks left in soybean's export marketing year, shipments need to average 8.55 million bushels and sales need to average 0.975 million bushels to reach USDA's 1.79 billion bushels estimate.
Barley
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USDA reported barley export inspections pace for the week ending March 13 at 68,207 bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for barley to 7.18 million bushels, compared with 7.15 million last year at this time.
For the week ending March 19, cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were up 5 cents to $2.75 per bushel, while there was no bid for malting barley.
Durum
USDA reported durum export inspections pace for the week ending March 13 at 771,605 bushels.
Durum export sales were reported at 1.1 million bushels.
For the week ending March 19, cash bids for milling quality durum were at $9.50 per bushel in Berthold, N.D., while the Dickinson, N.D., bid was at $9.50.
Canola
For the week ending March 19, the front month May canola contract gained $5.70 to $465 (Canadian). Canola moved higher on the week as commercial demand remains solid. The Canadian dollar continues to trade at weak levels, providing additional support. The large South American crop and farmer selling pressured the canola market throughout the week. Weather concerns in western Canada also provided support.
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For the week ending March 19, cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., decreased 22 cents to $15.95 per hundredweight.
Sunflowers
USDA estimated soybean oil export sales pace for the week ending March 13 at 8.1 thousand metric tons. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for soybean oil to 591.8 thousand metric tons, compared with 558.6 thousand metric tons for last year.
For the week ending March 19, May soybean oil futures were 13 cents higher to $30.62. Cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were 10 cents higher on the week at $19.10 per hundredweight.
