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Soybean oil keeps the soybean market afloat while Minneapolis wheat continues to climb

AgweekTV's Michelle Rook and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management discuss the fallout from the Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks, which were released Sept. 30. Soybeans and corn struggled, but the strength of soybean oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils kept soybean losses at a minimum. Meanwhile, Minneapolis wheat continues to find new sources of strength.

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Soybeans were only down a little this past week, which didn't seem likely after bearish Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports were released on Sept. 30, AgweekTV's Michelle Rook said on this week's Agweek Market Wrap, sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.

With bigger stocks, harvest pressure and higher yields, soybeans had a lot working against it. But Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management said the strength of the soybean oil market, as well as the palm oil market and vegetable oils in general, helped keep soybeans from experiencing big dips.

That doesn't mean all is well in the soybean market world, though; Martinson said more harvest pressure, lack of demand and news of good rains and planting progress in Brazil all could have an impact.

"It seems like we could find more bearish news to pressure the soybeans than bullish," he said.

The Tuesday World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is likely to have an impact. That's also the case in corn, which had a tough week. Martinson said harvest pressure played a big part in that.

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However, seven-year highs in crude oil, solid ethanol production and high exports all could help the corn market, he and Rook said.

Higher Minneapolis wheat also helps the corn market. While Chicago and Kansas City wheat faltered, Minneapolis put in new contract highs on Friday. How high will it go? That remains to be seen, Martinson said, but there is a lot in its favor, including tight supplies and lower imports as Canada also struggles with spring wheat production.

Winter wheat, in contrast to spring wheat, is seeing favorable conditions. Plus, Russia, despite increasing prices, remains strong in export markets.

"We just can't seem to get into that export market," Martinson said.

The cattle market was sharply higher this week, Rook said. But Martinson said he's leery of saying the lows are in for the market. If more cows get culled as they are pulled off of pasture, that could put more pressure on.

"The demand is there," Martinson said. "It's just that we've seen a lot of supplies and a lot of cattle coming to town for slaughter."

The big news has been that beef exports hit $1 billion for the first time in August, and Rook said it appears beef exports will set a yearly record.

The hog market, in contrast to the good week in cattle, "couldn't seem to get it going this week," Martinson said. Rook and Martinson said it looked like the market may have gotten pushed too far by a bullish Hogs and Pigs Report but hopefully will draw strength from a stronger cattle market.

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"Hopefully that market can find a little equilibrium," Martinson said.

To watch previous episodes of the Agweek Market Wrap, click here.

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