Wheat
Wheat struggled last week, almost giving back all of its gains from the previous week. For the week ending Nov. 20, December Minneapolis dropped 4.75 cents, December Chicago slipped 13.25 cents and December Kansas City dropped 3.25 cents.
Wheat started the week with losses and traded with losses for the first three sessions of the week. Early selling pressure came from noncommercial selling. Strength in the U.S. dollar pressured, as did disappointing export inspections. Ample world wheat supplies continue to put U.S. wheat last on the list for countries that need to import wheat. Additional selling spilled over from a lower corn and soybean complex, as both those markets struggled. Lingering cold weather and re-ignited tensions in the Russia and Ukraine conflict limited losses early in the week.
The Nov. 20 session had wheat trading on the plus side. Early support came from a decent export sales estimate. Additional support spilled over from a stronger corn and soybean complex, as technical buying helped push those markets off support lines. Late session buying increased once the Climate Prediction Center released its seasonal forecast calling for drought conditions to continue and likely intensify in the next three months in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Light support was also from rain in Brazil. Wheat continues to see issues from demand shortfalls as the U.S. cannot seem to get exports (because of the strong U.S. dollar).
On the cash side, producers should be looking at pricing cash wheat now, especially if basis levels are positive. There has been a quick change in the scales (premium and discounts) and basis levels recently, as domestic demand for wheat has picked up. The improvement is not expected to last long, and Pro Ag would expect to see the current incentive to start disappearing by early December. That would be about the time elevators will start to clean up corn and soybean piles. Strength should return late spring once the winter wheat starts to emerge from dormancy, especially if the drought intensifies.
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As of Nov. 16, winter wheat planting is estimated 95 percent completed, compared with 93 percent the previous week and 97 percent for the five-year average. Winter wheat emergence was estimated at 87 percent, compared with 83 percent the previous week and 84 percent for the five-year average. Winter wheat crop condition was estimated at 60 percent good to excellent, 34 percent fair and 6 percent poor or very poor, unchanged from the previous week.
Corn
The corn market traded under pressure to start the week with slow demand and talk of a record crop. Corn harvest is also nearly complete and the supply chain is filling up. Export news has also been quiet and the strength in the dollar does not help. There was some support late in the week as the December options expired. The trend in corn has turned sideways and is likely to stay that way for the time being. As of 10 a.m. Nov. 21, the December contract was down 5 cents for the week, while the March contract lost 6 cents.
Corn traded slightly lower on Nov. 17, and buying interest remained sidelined as harvest nears completion. Additional pressure came from the disappointing export inspections and demand has been stagnant. The previous week's rally in the corn futures also triggered an increase in farmer selling and the pipelines are near capacity. More of the same downside pressure on Nov. 18 and 19. The crop progress report showed the corn harvest at 89 percent complete, compared with the five-year average of 88 percent. Noncommercial selling also entered the market as the futures dropped below the 20-day moving average.
The futures bounced higher on Nov. 20 after four consecutive lower closes with short covering. Additional support came from the ethanol report that showed corn use up from the previous week and stocks were lower. There was also an announcement from U.S. Department of Agriculture of a fresh export sale of 101,600 metric tons to an unknown destination and the export sales report was above estimates. Traders are also positioning ahead of the Nov. 21 expiration of the December options. The futures were near unchanged on Nov. 21 and the Environmental Protection Agency has postponed the release of its Renewable Fuel Standard mandate until 2015.
Ethanol production for the week ending Nov. 14 averaged 970,000 barrels per day, up 2.54 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.79 million barrels. Corn used in production is estimated at 101.85 million bushels and needs to average 99.404 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.15 billion bushels. Stocks were 17.335 million barrels, down 2.09 percent from the previous week.
Soybeans
As of the Nov. 20 close, January soybeans were 2 cents lower for the week. At 10 a.m. Nov. 21, January soybeans were trading 15.5 cents higher.
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Soybean trade was lower at midday Nov. 17, but recovered to finish with solid gains. The National Oilseed Processors Association released its October crush numbers at 158 million bushels, above the expected range of 149 million to 152 million. This was more than expected and the largest October crush on record. NOPA pegged soybean oil stocks at 966 million pounds, which was less than expected, but still up from the previous month. The Nov. 17 export inspections were extremely strong at 114.4 million bushels. USDA announced a sale of 111,095 metric tons of soybeans to China, with 50,641 metric tons being a previously reported sale to unknown.
Soybeans traded lower on Nov. 18 and 19, as the harvest moves toward completion. The crop progress report showed the harvest at 94 percent complete, just short of the 96 percent five-year average. This year's huge harvest and early talk of more soybean acres in the U.S. next year pressure the market. South American planting provides additional pressure, as planting has nearly caught up to last year's pace, despite the slow start. Brazil's crop is now 63 percent planted, only 6 percent behind last year's pace, with no major weather issues in the forecast. Demand remained strong with additional announced sales of 106,607 metric tons to unknown on Nov. 18 and 125,000 metric tons to unknown on Nov. 19.
Soybeans traded higher Nov. 20, as demand remains strong. The Nov. 20 export sales report came in less than expected, but still well above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection. Sales and shipments have now reached 79 percent and 60 percent of the projected total with 41 weeks remaining in the marketing year. Additionally, USDA announced a sale of 140,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Large supplies remain the counterweight to strong demand, with additional pressure tied to talk of increased U.S. bean acres next year.
USDA reported soybean export inspections pace for the week ending Nov. 14 at 114.4 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for soybeans to 610.3 million bushels, compared with 520.5 million for last year at this time. Soybean export sales pace for the week ending Nov. 14 was estimated at 17.7 million bushels. This brings soybean's export sales to 1.367 billion bushels, compared with 1.297 billion last year. With 41 weeks left in soybean's export marketing year, shipments need to average 27.1 million bushels and sales need to average 8.6 million to reach USDA's estimate of 1.72 billion.
As of Nov. 16, soybeans harvested were at 94 percent, compared with 90 percent the previous week and the five-year average of 96 percent.
Barley
USDA reported no barley export shipments for the week ending Nov. 14. This brings barley export shipments pace for 2014 to 3.08 million bushels, compared with 3.11 million last year. Barley export sales pace for the week ending Nov. 14 was estimated at 200,000 bushels. Year-to-date export sales pace for barley was at 4.2 million bushels, compared with 5.3 million for last year. Nov. 20 cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were at $2.55 per bushel, while malting bids were $7.35.
Durum
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There were no export shipments reported for durum for the week ending Nov. 14.
Durum export sales pace for the week ending Nov. 14 was estimated at 1.5 million bushels. This brings durum's export sales to 14 million bushels, compared with 10.1 million last year. Nov. 20 cash bids for milling quality durum were at $14 per bushel in Berthold, N.D., while the Dickinson, N.D., bid was at $13.75.
Canola
Canola futures on the Winnipeg, Manitoba, exchange closed the week ending Nov. 20 $3.30 (Canadian) higher. Canola started the week with gains, trading higher the first two sessions of the week and ending with gains. Support spilled over from a stronger U.S. soybean complex. Weakness in the Canadian dollar provided additional support. Late-week gains were supported by the lack of farmer selling. The Nov. 20 cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., were at $17.43 per hundredweight.
Sunflowers
As of Nov. 16, 80 percent of the nation's sunflower crop was harvested, compared with 70 percent the previous week and 81 percent for the five-year average. USDA estimated soybean oil export sales pace for the week ending Nov, 14 at 19.6 thousand metric tons. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for soybean oil to 287.1 thousand metric tons, compared with 248.1 thousand metric tons for last year. Nov. 20 cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were at $17.75 per hundredweight.
