AMMAN -- Heavy rain will give Syria a healthier wheat harvest after last year's drought cut the crop to its lowest in around in 25 years, but war is making grain distribution hard and vital stocks may still be seized by Islamic State.
Syria's northern provinces of Hasaka and Deir al Zor account for nearly half of its harvest and are the battleground for the struggle between Kurdish and Islamic State forces.
The wheat harvest could be on track for a 50 percent increase over 2014's crisis levels, to between 2.5 to 2.8 million metric tons, experts and agro-economists said. Syria produced around 4 million metric tons before the war.
Initial crop estimates come from experts working in United Nations agencies and specialists who analyze satellite findings and use Syria's agricultural ministry data from seed and fertilizer distribution centers across the country.
"It's definitely going to be 2.5 million metric tons plus or minus and closer to 2.8. It's excellent if it is that because that is probably the maximum you can do," says a senior agronomist in an international agricultural organization who requested anonymity.
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The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization estimated 2014 wheat production at 1.865 million metric tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that Syria will consume 4.4 million tonnes of wheat during the 2014/15 season, underlining the importance of stocks to cover harvest shortfalls.
Getting to the land
Many farmers continue to work the land near battlefields, but Arab and Kurdish farmers in some villages in southern Hasaka and Deir Zor have been unable to reach their plots, some farmers in the area say.
Several parts of rural Syria are outside government control and only a fraction of the pre-crisis 140 grain collection centres are operating, but observers say this is improving.
"This year the state is reaching more areas they can access and this gives farmers more seeds and fertilisers," says one regional specialist who has dealt with Syria for two decades.
Experts say the war has shrunk the area of cultivated land by at least 30 percent.
Abdul Mueen al-Qadamani, a senior Ministry of Agriculture official, said irrigated acreage had fallen in the four years of conflict due to damage to irrigation systems, farmers' inability to get sufficient seeds and fertilizers and shortages of fuel needed to operate pumping stations and machinery.
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FAO and Syrian food experts say so far all the signs show the planting of the crop this season has gone well, with farmers having begun sowing as early as October at the start of heavy rain.
"The continued rainfall into November until March in general compared to previous years was good. There are signs that some wheat stalks have started maturing..this gives an indication of an abundant crop," Qadamani says.
The head of Syria's water resources authority, Samer Ahmad, told state media heavy rainfall had already filled up some of its over 161 dams.
"Some of the dams have filled up and even flooded due to the heavy rainfall," Ahmad says.
More heavy rains are forecast in the first half of April.
