The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report didn't make many changes that would have an impact on the markets, but the weather and the forecasts are pushing grains, AgweekTV's Michelle Rook and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management said on this week's Agweek Market Wrap.
There's been nothing in the forecasts conducive to planting, Martinson said. That could mean fewer acres of wheat and corn getting planted. Wheat and corn acreage already is expected to be down this year, according to the P rospective Planting report released last week.
"If we see later planting it means we could see lower yields, which means lower production, and that just keeps that tight balance sheet talk moving forward," he said.
Conversely, later planting often leads to more soybean acres, and soybean acreage already is anticipated to be at a record, he said.
The April WASDE report, Rook and Martinson said, was largely a placekeeper, and the May report will be a bigger deal.
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Also helping wheat this week was the first crop progress rating, which showed winter wheat with its lowest initial rating in 26 years and the lowest ever for hard red winter wheat. Soybean oil found strength from the palm oil market.
Cattle were down this week. Rook and Martinson said feed costs are part of it. There also is some profit taking going on, and the WASDE showed an increase in production potential.
The drought still is having an impact on the cattle herd, as cows, along with animals that would have been potential replacement heifers and bulls, are going to slaughter or being fed, Martinson said. That will decrease the size of the cattle herd, but right now, there are a lot of animals on feed.
A liquidation continues in the hog market, which has been going on since the Hogs and Pigs report. But the WASDE was friendly to hogs, with a cut to production numbers, Martinson said. He and Rook said the tightest supplies in the hog market usually come in the summer, so it's likely that production numbers will be further trimmed.
