Volatile market week included surprising WASDE, disappointing exports, economic concerns, harvest wait
On this week's Agweek Market Wrap, Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management and Randy Koenen discuss the market volatility brought on by WASDE's bullish soybean numbers, poor corn exports in the first export report in months, concerns about the economy and the fact that everyone is waiting to see harvest results.
It was a volatile week in the markets, Randy Koenen of Red River Farm Network pointed out on this week's Agweek Market Wrap.
- Corn price is the ‘monkey-wrench' in the cattle-feeding game
- Russia is escalating tensions with Ukraine and that has wheat soaring
- Russia news and harvest pressure the markets
- USDA reports confirm that corn and wheat stocks have tightened
- U.S. government cuts corn, soy supply view on harvest setbacks
That volatility started with the surprising WASDE report released Monday, showing lower than expected expectations for the upcoming soybean crop, which sent soybean prices sharply higher, said Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management. That was followed by the first export sales report in about four weeks, which was disappointing in terms of corn sales. That got the market focused back on harvest and what that might look like, he said.
However, also playing into the up and down movement were continuing economic concerns. The Consumer Price Index was higher than expected, sending the dollar higher and the Dow lower.
"That came in to kind of sting the market as well," Martinson said.
Traders, Koenen pointed out, may be taking "money off the table and go to the sidelines and wait and see." Martinson said that is true, and some of that money is going into the stock market instead of commodities trading.
The wait now is for the first harvested yields, he said.
Meanwhile, other parts of the world are having their crop struggles, too, including troubles shipping out of the European Union because of low water levels and drought concerns in South America.
Martinson said wheat led on Friday, as U.S. and world wheat stocks are tight. There are concerns about continuing concerns about Ukraine's ability to produce crops. The market needs to buy winter wheat acres in the southern Plains, Martinson said. And wheat harvest in the northern Plains and Canada continues to drag on.
(The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.)