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Soybeans remain 'star of the grain complex'

AgweekTV's Michelle Rook and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management discussed the continuing strength of soybeans, corn's follower role, wheat's tie to world news and the tight supplies of cattle and pigs.

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The Agweek Market Wrap started again this week with talk about the strength of soybeans.

"They're still kind of the star of the grain complex, all pushed by South American weather," AgweekTV's Michelle Rook said.

The estimates for the South American crop continue to drop, and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management said he wouldn't be surprised to see that continue as the forecast for rain keeps getting pushed back.

Export sales also continue to show strength for soybeans, with Rook pointing out sales in eight of the past nine days.

"That has really been helping," Martinson said.

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That shows the production problems in South America.

Corn, meanwhile, has been more of a follower, Rook said. Martinson confirmed the safrinha crop is getting rain and getting planted. Plus, exports and ethanol haven't been as strong. However, corn needs to maintain acres, so it has to keep pace with soybeans.

Wheat, Rook and Martinson said, has been moving up and down with the ever-changing news no the situation between Ukraine and Russia. Martinson said it's hard to say where that will end up, but for now, exports have remained sluggish. If the two countries go to war, Martinson said the U.S. seems poised to side with Ukraine and China with Russia, which he said would be a "mess."

In more domestic news concerning wheat, forecasts are expecting moisture in the southern Plains, but the Kansas City market seemed to have been pushed forward by expanding drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, Rook said. Those factors will continue to be in play as the winter wheat crop moves out of dormancy.

Martinson said the cattle market has looked tired as of late, though he still sees room for an upside there. Hogs continue to push ahead on tight supplies.

Tight numbers will continue to be a big factor for livestock, he said. Cattle can't build back fast, while hogs can. However, Martinson said the stock market also will come into play, as meat is often something consumers will cut if money is a factor.

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