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'Another crazy week' in the markets as weather pushes recovery

The week started out with funds trying to get out of commodity markets and finished the week with a bit of a recovery, Don Wick of Red River Farm Network said on this week's Agweek Market Wrap. Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management said weather is at the root of the recovery.

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It was "another crazy week" in the markets, Don Wick of Red River Farm Network said on this week's Agweek Market Wrap.

The week started out with funds trying to get out of commodity markets and finished the week with a bit of a recovery, Wick said. Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management said weather is at the root of the recovery.

Martinson said the markets were "been up pretty badly" and getting a bit oversold. Then, some weather concerns — conditions may be "a little warmer and a little drier with the corn going into pollination" — had funds looking to get back in the game.

Part of the concern is that supplies are especially tight. And with the Acreage Report released June 30 showing fewer acres of soybeans, there' s an increased awareness that every bushel is needed, Martinson said. Other things, like videos of a wheat field burning in Ukraine, also helped remind of the multiple factors feeding into the volatility.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the world, Wick said, with the Ukraine/Russia situation, the UK prime minister resigning, a resistance by Dutch farmers and the former prime minister of Japan being assassinated. But Martinson said the biggest factor remains, "will we have favorable weather?"

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The strength of the U.S. dollar is hurting exports. So did Russia's decision to change their export tax on wheat, which Martinson said amounted to Russia "dumping" their wheat on world. He doesn't expect to see an improvement in U.S. exports until new crop harvest begins.

Martinson expects the WASDE, to be released on Tuesday, will be friendly to soybeans, slightly friendly to wheat and "flat" for corn.

With all the volatility in the market, Martinson said he's telling farmers to be patient.

On the livestock side, the cash cattle market continues to hold strong. Martinson said domestic demand still is needed.

The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.

Jenny Schlecht is the editor of Agweek and Sugarbeet Grower Magazine. She lives on a farm and ranch near Medina, North Dakota, with her husband and two daughters. You can reach her at jschlecht@agweek.com or 701-595-0425.
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