The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates came in bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat.
Corn yield was raised by 1.7 bushels per acre from August to 176.3 bushels per acre, and harvested acres were also raised by 600,000 to 85.1 million acres. That led to a production increase of 246 million bushel to 14.996 billion bushels. USDA raised exports and feed and residual use by 75 million bushels each, so that put ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop to 1.408 billion bushels, which was up 166 million bushels from August.
World corn carryout was bearish with an increase of nearly 13 million metric tons to 297.6 million metric tons for 2021-22, some of that coming from increased China production forecasts. Brazil corn production was only lowered 1 million metric tons to 86 million metric tons, which was a surprise since most of the private forecasts are well below that. It was also offset by an increase in Argentina’s production by 1.5 million metric tons.
For soybeans, yield was raised .6 bushels per acre to 50.6 and harvest acres were lowered by 300,000 to 86.4 million acres. So that put production at 4.374 billion bushels, which was up 35 million bushels from last month. The higher production and beginning stocks were offset by a 35 million bushels increase in exports, so ending stocks were only up 30 million bushels from the last report to 185 million bushels.
World soybean carryout was higher by 2.6 million metric tons to 98.8 million metric tons and South American production estimates were left unchanged.
Corn had a bullish reaction to the report and Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis said the speculative community was so bearish coming into the report much of the news was already factored in.
“December corn briefly dropped below $5 before finding strong end user buying and speculative short covering. The same was true for soybeans. So maybe this will bottom the market,” he said.
The U.S. acreage and yield for wheat were left unchanged but ending stocks were lowered by 12 million bushels from last month to 627 million bushels but down 27% from 2020 and the lowest in eight years. Exports were unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Hard red spring wheat stocks were lowered by 5 million bushels to 111 million bushels which is a 53% decrease from last year. Hard red winter wheat carryover was raised by just 1 million bushels to 347 million bushels from last month. World 2021-22 wheat carryout was raised by more than 4 million metric tons to 283.2 million metric tons, with increases in Australia and India’s production offset by smaller crops in Canada and Argentina.