Michelle Rook, host of Agweek TV, took an in-depth look at the markets during the 39th annual Agweek Farm Show, held virtually, with some of the country’s best marketing analysts. The markets have been of great interest lately, with many crops, as well as hogs, hitting multi-year highs.

The big questions are, how much higher will this rally go, or has the peak of it been reached?

“On corn, I’ve got to believe if you get above six (dollars per acre), it’s not going to go much further than that, unless you get some help from the U.S. weather situation or a serious weather situation out of South America,” said Matt Bennett of AgMarket.net.

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The USDA, in the Planting Intentions Reports, estimated that 90 million acres of soybeans will be planted.

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The top market analysts joined Michelle Rook during the virtual Agweek Farm Show.
The top market analysts joined Michelle Rook during the virtual Agweek Farm Show.
“I think if you come in below 90, the market is going to be pretty reactive,” continued Bennett. “The market is going to feel like it’s got some work to do. But what was the mindset of the producer on March 1st? It was, ‘These are the most profit margins we’ve seen in years and we’ve got insurance guarantees we haven’t seen in a long time. Last fall our fertilizer prices were pretty cheap, so we’re going to plant fence row to fence row.’ I think you’re going to see big acres for intentions. Does that come to pass on planted acres? Nobody knows that. But intentions are likely to be robust.”

USDA's figure at the Ag Outlook Forum was 92 million acres, but fertilizer prices have gone up a lot since last fall. Rook noted that if a grower didn’t get fertilizer down last fall, it may scare some growers into planting additional corn acres.

“The swing acres are going to go to soybeans for the most part,” Bennett said. “The main reason being profitability."

On spring wheat in the Upper Midwest, Duwayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing said he can see the crop losing out to canola in north central North Dakota.

“Other than that, I don’t see it losing out many acres. That is mainly because of the favorable weather,” Bosse said.

Some winter wheat acres will be abandoned before planting, and Bosse said those acres will likely be switched to corn.

“More than likely, they already have the fertilizer down so the grower already has the expense into it. If they don’t have the fertilizer down, then I guess they are pretty open to switch to whatever they want,” he said.