Wheat
For the week ending March 26, May Minneapolis lost 26.25 cents, May Chicago fell 30.75 cents and May Kansas City lost 26.5 cents. As of 10 a.m. March 27, wheat trade was up 2.5 cents to 7 cents.
Wheat opened the week with gains following another round of losses in the U.S. dollar. Weather remained a concern, with the forecast calling for dry weather in the southwest Plains and more rain for already wet fields in the eastern Midwest. March 23 export inspections were solid, but below the amount needed to keep pace with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's projection.
Wheat closed lower March 24, a needed correction after gaining nearly 50 cents in the past two weeks, and the slide continued March 25. The March 23 crop condition reports from state National Agricultural Statistics Service offices showed some improvement in good to excellent ratings in some southern states. Pressure continued to come from the same weather concerns of the past week with the southwest Plains too dry and wet fields in the east. Globally most winter wheat is doing well with the exception of some dryness concerns in Germany and northern China. Though off its recent highs, the U.S. dollar is still strong, and a limiting factor for wheat trade.
Wheat traded lower March 26, following a disappointing weekly export sales report. Sales came in below the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection, while shipments continue to lag behind, as well. Weather concerns that have been supportive to wheat the past couple weeks are beginning to ease somewhat, though there is still plenty of room for improvement. The U.S. dollar was higher again March 26, keeping pressure on the wheat markets.
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USDA estimated wheat export shipments pace for the week ending March 20 at 18.8 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for wheat to 676.3 million bushels, compared with 934 million last year at this time. Wheat export sales pace for the week ending March 20 was estimated at 3.8 million bushels. This brings wheat's export sales to 835.9 million bushels, compared with 1.099 billion last year. With 10 weeks left in wheat's export marketing year, shipments need to average 22.4 million bushels and sales need to average 6.41 million to reach USDA's estimate of 900 million bushels.
Corn
The corn market moved higher last week with talk of smaller acreage estimates and increased demand. Traders are also looking ahead to one of the biggest USDA reports of the year, where the government will release its acreage estimate for the upcoming year and quarterly stocks report. Expectations are that acres will be down from last year and increased feed demand as we move forward with growing livestock numbers. As of the March 26 close, the May contract was up 6.25 cents for the week.
The corn trade moved higher with short covering providing support to open the week. Weakness in the U.S. dollar and weather concerns added additional strength. Parts of the U.S. are too wet, while Argentina's crops were stressed by recent hot weather. The weekly export inspections were solid, but below the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection. Buying interest remained in place for two days, matching the highest close of the past four weeks. The ethanol report showed corn use up from the previous week and processor margins were in the green for the second week in a row, but stocks were slightly larger and crude oil stocks grew more than expected. Additional support came from news that Mexico bought 114,000 metric tons of corn, and planting progress remains slow in the Delta because of excessive moisture.
The corn futures traded lower March 26, with fund selling pressure and spillover from the sharp losses in the wheat complex. The dollar was also firm and added pressure to the grains. Traders are also positioning for the March 31 USDA quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report, with estimates for corn acres to be down 1.9 million acres from last year at 88.731 million for 2015, while the quarterly stocks are estimated at 7.609 billion bushels versus 7.008 billion one year ago.
Ethanol production for the week ending March 20 averaged 953,000 barrels per day, up 0.63 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.671 million barrels. Corn used in production the week ending March 20 is estimated at 100.07 million bushels and needs to average 100.12 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.2 billion bushels. Stocks were 21.317 million barrels, up 2.39 percent from the previous week.
USDA's export inspections report was bearish for corn at 39.2 million bushels, below the 41.4 million needed to meet USDA's projection. Corn export sales were estimated at 17.1 million bushels, just above the needed amount of 15 million to stay on pace with USDA's estimate of 1.8 billion bushels. The shipments came in at 42 million bushels, above the 41 million needed to keep pace with USDA projections.
Soybeans
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As of the March 26 close, May soybeans were 0.75 cents higher for the week, while November soybeans were down 1 cent. At 10 a.m. March 27, May soybeans were trading 6 cents lower and the November contract was down 5.5 cents.
Follow-through buying following the March 20 higher close led to gains in soybeans March 23. Gains in soymeal, losses in the U.S. dollar, and some weather issues in South America provided support. Argentina received some hot, dry weather that put some stress on row crops, but the forecast called for cooler temperatures. Weather in Brazil looked to allow the harvest to continue, as soybeans from Brazil are already significantly cheaper than U.S. beans. Demand remains good for soybeans, and last week's export inspections came in above the amount needed to keep pace with USDA's projection.
Soybean trade was lower March 24 and 25 with ongoing harvest pressure from South America. Brazil's harvest is roughly two-thirds complete with generally favorable forecasts for continuing to move forward. Brazil's cheap soybean prices have made it difficult for the U.S. to compete for export business lately, but some weakness in the U.S. dollar and logistic concerns in Brazil have helped. On March 25, USDA reported a sale of 108,863 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to Canada.
Soybean trade was lower again March 26, as South American harvest pressure continues to hang over the market. Expectations of higher acres in the Prospective Plantings report pressure, as well. Demand remains good for soybeans, with the March 26 weekly export sales report coming in with better-than-expected numbers. Soybean sales are less than 9 million bushels away from USDA's 1.79-billion-bushel estimate with 23 weeks left. Cancellations are not much of a concern either, with 89 percent of sales already shipped. On March 26, USDA announced a sale of 280,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations.
USDA reported soybean export inspections pace for the week ending March 20 at 19.1 million bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for soybeans to 1.604 billion bushels, compared with 1.457 billion last year at this time. Soybean export sales pace for the week ending March 20 was estimated at 18.6 million bushels. This brings soybean's export sales to 1.781 billion bushels, compared with 1.633 billion last year. With 23 weeks left in soybean's export marketing year, shipments need to average 8.09 million bushels and sales need to average 0.374 million to reach USDA's 1.79-billion-bushel estimate.
Barley
USDA reported barley export inspections pace for the week ending March 20 at 41,246 bushels. This brings the year-to-date export shipments pace for barley to 7.29 million bushels, compared with 7.2 million last year at this time.
There were no export sales reported the week ending March 20 for barley. Barley's export sales are at 6.4 million bushels, compared with 8.2 million last year at this time.
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For the week ending March 26, cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were up 10 cents to $2.85 per bushel while there was no bid for malting barley.
Durum
USDA reported durum export inspections pace for the week ending March 20 at 992,688 bushels.
Durum export sales were reported at 100,000 bushels. This brings durum's export sales to 24.9 million bushels, compared with 17.8 million last year at this time.
For the week ending March 26, cash bids for milling quality durum were at $9.25 per bushel in Berthold, N.D., while the Dickinson, N.D., bid was at $9.50.
Canola
For the week ending march 26, the front month May canola contract lost $7 to $453.90 (Canadian). Canola traded higher early in the week with support tied in part to dryness concerns in western Canada. Solid demand and sharp gains in Chicago Board of Trade soy oil futures on March 23 were supportive, as well. As the week went on, canola began to slip, with the front month May contract closing with losses on Feb. 25 and 26. Long liquidation ahead of the March 31 USDA reports pressured as USDA is expected to project more soybean acres. Weakness in CBOT soybean and soy meal futures in the latter half of the week pressured, as well.
For the week ending March 26, cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., decreased 14 cents to $15.78 per hundredweight.
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Sunflowers
USDA estimated soybean oil export sales pace for the week ending March 20 at 22.4 thousand metric tons. This brings the year-to-date export sales pace for soybean oil to 614.1 thousand metric tons, compared with 562.6 thousand metric tons for last year.
For the week ending March 26, May soybean oil futures were 49 cents higher to $31.17. Cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were 20 cents higher on the week at $19.30 per hundredweight.
