Grain markets experience a WASDE hangover but livestock look stronger
AgweekTV's Michelle Rook and Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management talk about the market reaction to the Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on the Agweek Market Wrap.
The grain markets, particularly the corn and soybeans, experienced a bit of a "hangover" following the Feb. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, AgweekTV's Michelle Rook said.
"The report didn't come in as we expected," Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag Risk Management confirmed.
Rook and Martinson talked about the "bloodletting" in the markets during the Agweek Market Wrap, sponsored by Gateway Building Systems .
Martinson said the U.S. Department of Agriculture seems to be waiting for more confirmation that China will get their corn and soybeans from the U.S. before changing their numbers.
And despite the tough week for corn, Martinson believes there is hope for the market, with much depending on the South American harvest. If the soybean harvest is wet and difficult, it will mean the safrina corn crop will get planted late or fewer acres will get planted, which could tighten stocks.
The soybean picture also is somewhat dependent on the South American situation. Wet conditions are delaying harvest.
"I think we could take our tracks down and sell them," Martinson said.
If those issues continue, and if the U.S. sees more export sales, he sees the soybean market pushing higher. In the meantime, CONAB is forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop.
The WASDE report was mostly a non-event for wheat, Rook and Martinson discussed. However, there are indications that China is switching some livestock rations from corn to wheat. Also, the cold snap hitting the U.S. could mean some winterkill for winter wheat crops.
While grains struggled a bit for the week, livestock showed some strength. The cold snap means cattle efficiency is lower, which helps, Martinson said. But also, domestic and export beef demand is up, which he only expects to continue. Hogs also were up for the week. If restaurants are able to continue opening up, good things will happen, Martinson said, also noting that stimulus checks would provide people more disposable income to spend on meat.
"Everybody's just waiting to go have a steak at a restaurant," he said.