Wheat
Wheat struggled last week, but overall managed to end the week with only minor changes. Wheat has put in new lows weekly for what seems like a long time, so last week's quiet session was welcome. For the week ending Sept. 25, December Minneapolis gained 0.75 cent, December Chicago dropped 0.5 cents and December Kansas City was the big winner gaining 4 cents.
Wheat started the week with gains. Early support came from news Egypt had purchased 55,000 metric tons of wheat from the U.S. overnight. But, wheat was not able to hold onto the gains, as every time the market sees strength, sell orders get uncovered. Selling pressure was tied to improving weather conditions as warm dry weather in the North will allow for harvest to wrap up while the South is expected to see favorable weather for crop development on the newly seeded winter wheat.
The Sept. 23 session saw wheat trading with losses. Wheat was again able to start with strength because of a lower U.S. dollar, which was pressured by the escalation in the military action against ISIS. But wheat was not able to hold onto the gains once corn started to sell off. Wheat and corn remain tied to each other as both are trying to compete for a share of the feed ration. World wheat production is expected to be at a record this year, and so far quality issues have been seen in the Europian Union and U.S. This has resulted in wheat coming under extreme pressure as it tries to reach a price that will encourage use.
Commercial buying led the wheat market higher Sept. 24, as spot prices hit their lowest levels in more than four years. The gains came in spite of four-year highs in the U.S. dollar. The wheat market is oversold, but the downtrend remains intact with record world production expected. Weather looks favorable in the near term with much-needed rain in the forecast for the Black Sea region and good planting weather in the Southern Plains.
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Selling returned to wheat to wrap up the week. Wheat saw selling once the International Grains Council released its wheat production estimate. Early support came from a neutral export sales estimate. Additional support came from reports that Nigeria bought 4.4 million bushels of wheat overnight. Gains were hard to hold once the IGC released its updated wheat production estimate. The IGC is now more in line with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, putting world wheat production at 717 million metric tons (compared with 713 million and USDA's estimate of 720 million).
As of Sept. 21, 86 percent of the nation's spring wheat crop was harvested, compared with 74 percent the previous week and 92 percent for the five-year average. Winter wheat planting is estimated 25 percent completed, compared with 12 percent the previous week and 22 percent for the five-year average.
Corn
The corn market traded to new contract lows last week, with harvest pressure and good weather. Talk of record yields and production is also keeping buying interest on the sidelines. The IGC also raised its estimated world production by 1 million metric tons to 974 million last week. USDA will release its quarterly grains stocks report on Sept. 30. Estimates for corn are 1.191 billion bushels. As of Sept. 26, the December contract was down 6.75 cents for the week, while the March contract lost 7 cents.
The corn futures lost more ground on Sept. 22 and 23. Sept. 22 early weakness came from the sharp losses in the soybeans that spilled over. Additional pressure came from talk of record production potential and good weather. Warm temperatures are forecast into October and should help to add test weight to the crop. Combines continue to move north and yield reports continue to exceed expectations, while new-crop corn enters the supply chain. Sept. 23 pressure came from the crop conditions report. The crop conditions remained the same for the fourth week in a row at 74 percent good to excellent, well above the average of 57 percent for this time of year, while 7 percent of the crop is harvested.
The corn futures bounced off the Sept. 23 contract low on Sept. 24, with short covering and spillover strength in the wheat complex. But buying interest remained limited with a disappointing ethanol report that showed corn use down from the week ending Sept. 19 and below what is needed from USDA's projection. Selling interest came back into the trade on Sept. 25 and posted a new contract low in the December contract at $3.25. The market continues to struggle with good yields and talk of production north of 14 billion bushels, while the weather is good. The dollar also posted a new recent high last week and creates concern how it might affect export sales.
Ethanol production for the week ending Sept. 19 averaged 889,000 barrels per day, down 4.51 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.223 million barrels. Corn used in production is estimated at 93.35 million bushels and needs to average 98.412 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.125 billion bushels. Stocks were 18.592 million barrels, down 1.13 percent from the previous week.
The crop progress report has the corn rated at 74 percent good to excellent, 19 percent fair and 7 percent poor or very poor. Ratings were 55 percent, 29 percent and 16 percent, respectively, one year ago. Corn that is harvested is at 7 percent versus 7 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 15 percent. Dented corn is at 90 percent, versus 90 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 92 percent. Mature corn is at 42 percent, versus 37 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 54 percent.
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Soybeans
As of the Sept. 25 close, November soybeans were 34.25 cents lower for the week and the January contract was down 33.75 cents. At 11 a.m. Sept. 26, November soybeans were trading 8.5 cents lower.
Soybean trade was lower Sept. 22 and 23, with another round of new contract lows set on Sept. 22. The fundamental outlook for soybeans remains bearish with a record crop expected, and now basis is slipping as fresh bushels become available. Strong demand has helped slow the decline with another round of solid export inspections. The Sept. 22 crop progress report showed maturity a bit behind and crop ratings down 1 percent from the previous week. The harvest is getting under way in the southern states with the report showing 3 percent complete, behind the five-year average of 8 percent.
Soybeans closed with small gains amid light buying Sept. 24. The market had been down the past four days and was due for a correction, though it was small. Despite the bounce the trend remains firmly down with good weather as we enter the harvest with the crop expected to be record-sized. Demand has remained strong for soybeans, though the export market had been quiet through the first half of the week.
Soybeans closed with losses again Sept. 25, as the November contract set yet another new low. The market appears oversold, and demand remains strong with another sale of 115,000 metric tons of soybeans to China announced Sept. 25. Sept. 25 export sales report was solid and brought the total to 61 percent of USDA's projection just a few weeks into the marketing year. Despite all that the focus remains on the harvest of this expected record crop and the increased supplies that will accompany it.
Soybeans dropping leaves were at 45 percent, compared with 24 percent the previous week and the five-year average of 53 percent. Soybeans harvested were at 3 percent, compared with the five-year average of 8 percent. Conditions for soybeans were down 1 percent to 71 percent good to excellent, 22 percent fair and 7 percent poor or very poor.
Barley
As of Sept. 21, barley harvest was estimated at 95 percent complete, compared with 91 percent the previous week and 95 percent for the five-year average.
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Sept. 25 feed barley bids in Minneapolis were at $2.30 per bushel, while malting bids were $6.35.
Durum
As of Sept. 21, 55 percent of North Dakota's durum crop was harvested, compared with 34 percent the previous week and 80 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's durum crop condition rating was 72 percent good to excellent, 21 percent fair and 7 percent poor or very poor, down 2 percent from the previous week.
Sep. 25 cash bids for milling quality durum were at $12 per bushel in Berthold and Dickinson, N.D.
Canola
Canola futures on the Winnipeg, Manitoba, exchange closed the week ending Sept. 25 $1.20 (Canadian) lower. Canola traded to another new low last week. The market started and ended the week with losses but managed to gain small ground in the middle of the week. Pressure came from spillover from a weaker U.S. soybean complex and improving a weather conditions. Support came from technical buying and weaker Canadian dollar.
As of Sept. 21, North Dakota canola was 84 percent harvested, compared with 69 percent the previous week and 85 percent for the five-year average.
Sept. 25 cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., were at $15.41 per hundredweight.
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Dry edible beans
As of Sept. 22, North Dakota's dry bean crop (40 percent of the nation's crop) was 29 percent harvested, compared with 16 percent the previous week and 41 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's crop was rated 63 percent good to excellent, 28 percent fair and 9 percent poor or very poor, unchanged from the previous week. Minnesota's crop (7 percent of nation's crop) was 18 percent harvested, compared with zero the previous week and 46 percent for the five-year average. Minnesota's crop was rated 53 percent good to excellent, 33 percent fair and 14 percent poor or very poor, unchanged from the previous week. Nebraska's crop (10 percent of nation's crop) was 41 percent harvested, compared with 15 percent the previous week and 44 percent for the five-year average. Nebraska's crop was rated 83 percent good to excellent, 14 percent fair and 3 percent poor or very poor, unchanged from the previous week. Michigan's crop was rated 70 percent good to excellent, 23 percent fair, 7 percent poor or very poor, 1 percent higher than the previous week.
Sunflowers
As of Sept. 21, North Dakota's sunflower crop was 35 percent bracts turning yellow, compared with 19 percent the previous week and 71 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's sunflower crop was rated 76 percent good to excellent, 19 percent fair and 5 percent poor, a 3 percent decline from the previous week.
Sept. 25 cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D, were at $17.25 per hundredweight, while new-crop bids were unchanged at $17.30.
