Conditions increase pressures
Wheat Wheat traded lower last week. For the week ending Sept. 4, December Minneapolis lost 21.75 cents, December Chicago lost 33.25 cents and December Kansas City lost 22.5 cents. Following the Labor Day weekend, wheat contracts opened the week w...
Wheat traded lower last week. For the week ending Sept. 4, December Minneapolis lost 21.75 cents, December Chicago lost 33.25 cents and December Kansas City lost 22.5 cents.
Following the Labor Day weekend, wheat contracts opened the week with lower trade on Sept. 2 as tensions between Ukraine and Russia have lessened somewhat. Strength in the U.S. dollar led to noncommercial selling and talk of better-than-expected wheat in Europe provided additional pressure. There are growing concerns about rain sapping quality and reducing the availability of milling wheat. Sept. 2 export inspections were strong, coming in above the amount needed to keep pace with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's projection. The crop progress report showed spring wheat condition ratings down 3 percent, while the harvest lags well behind the five-year average at only 38 percent complete.
Wheat trade was mostly lower Sept. 3 and 4, with the December Chicago contract setting a new low each day. Sept. 4 trade did see small gains in the Kansas City market. Chart selling and spillover from corn and soybeans pressured wheat, as did the generally favorable near-term forecast. On Sept. 4, DTN reported sales of 66,000 metric tons of milling wheat to Japan and 26,100 metric tons of milling wheat to South Korea.
As of Aug. 31, 38 percent of the nation's spring wheat crop was harvested, compared with 27 percent the previous week and 65 percent for the five-year average. Spring wheat conditions were estimated at 63 percent good to excellent, 29 percent fair and 8 percent poor or very poor.
The corn market broke out of its recent seven-week range to the downside last week. USDA will release its monthly supply, demand and production numbers on Sept. 11 and traders are expecting larger numbers. The private estimates released last week were also bigger than what USDA posted in its August report. Crop conditions are also at a 20-year high and the early harvested crop in the south is exceeding expectations. As of the Sept. 4 close, the September contract was down 23.25 cents for the week, while the December contract lost 18.25 cents.
The corn futures struggled to start the week on Sept. 2 and there was good rain over the weekend throughout much of the country, but too much in some areas. Traders were also looking ahead to the Sept. 5 crop condition rating and expected them to be stable with the previous week, while seasonally, they drop. The report raised the conditions another 1 percent last week in the good to excellent category. The corn market was sharply lower on Sept. 3 and posted new contract lows. Selling pressure came into the market with another improvement in the Sept. 1 crop conditions report. This year's crop is now the sixth-highest rated in history for the calendar week and the best since 1994.
Sept. 4 was another down day and the futures posted new lows. Private estimates continue to predict record yield and production numbers, along with trade talk that big crops get bigger. The dollar was also sharply higher as the European Union lowered its interest rate, which can affect export sales. Some forecasts show a chance of frost in the Northern Plains late this week and the forecast will be closely watched as we start the week.
Ethanol production for the week ending Aug. 29 averaged 921,000 barrels per day, up 0.88 percent from the previous week. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.447 million barrels. Corn used in production the week ending Aug. 29 is estimated at 96.71 million bushels and needs to average 167.619 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5.075 billion bushels. Stocks were 17.673 million barrels, up 2.06 percent from the previous week.
The crop progress report has the corn rated at 74 percent good to excellent, 19 percent fair and 7 percent poor or very poor. Ratings were 56 percent, 28 percent and 16 percent, respectively, one year ago. Corn in the dough stage is at 90 percent versus 82 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 89 percent. Corn dented is at 53 percent versus 39 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 59 percent. Mature corn is at 8 percent versus 4 percent one year ago and a five-year average of 16 percent.
As of the Sept. 4 close, November soybeans were 21 cents lower for the week. At 10 a.m. Sept. 5, November soybeans were trading 4.5 cents higher.
Soybeans traded higher Sept. 2, following the long Labor Day weekend. Old-crop demand supported light buying, while short profit-taking provided additional support. The weather forecast remains nonthreatening for the soybean crop. The Sept. 2 crop progress report showed maturity near the five-year average and a 2 percent increase in crop ratings.
The Sept. 2 increased crop ratings led to lower trade Sept. 3. The market set a new contract low close, as the outlook remains fundamentally bearish with record production still expected. The near-term forecast is nonthreatening for soybeans.
The November contract set another new low on Sept. 4, as the market remains focused on the upcoming harvest, despite some bullish demand factors. Traders continue to expect record production, with the crop rating at its highest in 20 years. The forecast remains nonthreatening near term, though a potential cold snap this week could excite the market.
Soybeans setting pods were at 95 percent, compared with 90 percent the previous week and the five-year average of 95 percent. Soybeans dropping leaves were at 5 percent, compared with the five-year average of 7 percent. Conditions for soybeans were up 2 percent at 72 percent good to excellent, 22 percent fair and 6 percent poor or very poor.
Barley harvested was estimated at 58 percent, compared with 43 percent the previous week and the five-year average of 68 percent. Barley crop conditions were rated 52 percent good to excellent, 34 percent fair and 14 percent poor or very poor.
For the week ending Sept. 4, cash feed barley bids in Minneapolis were up 25 cents to $2.25 per bushel, while malting bids were at $5.70.
As of Aug. 31, 90 percent of North Dakota's durum crop was turning color, compared with 94 percent last year and 93 percent for the five-year average. Mature was at 59 percent. Durum harvested was at 14 percent, compared with 17 percent last year and 37 percent for the five-year average. Durum crop conditions were rated 79 percent good to excellent, 19 percent fair and 2 percent poor or very poor.
For the week ending Sept. 4, cash bids for milling quality durum were unchanged at $8.75 per bushel in Berthold, N.D., while the Dickinson, N.D., bid was unchanged at $8.85.
For the week ending Sept. 4, canola futures on the Winnipeg, Manitoba, exchange closed lower, with the front month November losing $6.50 to $413.30 (Canadian). Canola followed Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures last week, higher on Sept. 2 and lower Sept. 3 and 4. Continued uncertainty over the size of this year's crop provided support, as did wetter forecasts for the next two weeks.
As of Aug. 31, 96 percent of North Dakota's canola crop was turning color, compared with 92 percent last year and 96 percent for the five-year average. Canola harvested was at 18 percent, compared with 35 percent last year and 44 percent for the five-year average. Canola crop conditions rated at 88 percent good to excellent, 11 percent fair and 1 percent poor or very poor.
For the week ending Sept. 4, cash canola bids in Velva, N.D., decreased 41 cents to $16.25 per hundredweight.
Dry edible beans
As of Aug. 31, North Dakota producers (37 percent of the nation's crop) had 98 percent of their dry beans setting pods, compared with 97 percent last year and 99 percent for the five-year average. Dropping leaves was at 50 percent, compared with 27 percent last year and 37 percent for the five-year average. The harvest was 2 percent complete, compared with 6 percent for the five-year average. Crop conditions were rated 66 percent good to excellent, 25 percent fair and 9 percent poor or very poor.
As of Aug. 31, North Dakota's sunflower crop was 97 percent in bloom, compared with 97 percent last year and 98 percent for the five-year average. Flowers dried was at 34 percent, compared with 25 percent last year and 42 percent for the five-year average. North Dakota's sunflower crop was rated 83 percent good to excellent, 16 percent fair and 1 percent very poor.
For the week ending Sept. 4, soybean oil futures were 1 cent lower to $32. Cash sunflower bids in Fargo, N.D., were unchanged on the week at $17 per hundredweight.