BEESON: Crop size is big, but how big remains a question

CRESTWOOD, Ky. - U.S. Department of Agriculture reported huge crop expectations in its August crop estimates. Feedback from the ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour shows really good corn and soybean crops, but also provided enough questions so the market bulls could hold out hope that the crops were not as large as USDA indicated.
One can say with some certainty that the final weeks of August did not reduce the crop size. It remains to be seen what the crop size will actually be. Both the corn and soybean crop ratings are at or near a record high rating which is also true for sugar beets, durum, and spring wheat.
USDA rarely has to reduce its August estimates without weather developments clearly stressing the crops in late August. In fact, yields almost always increase in years when the weather cooperates. The challenge this year is that the August estimate was so incredibly large. Considering there is not much new information, combined with wanting to avoid criticism for the early large estimates, it is unlikely that the USDA will make major adjustments in the September reports.
We will have to wait a while before all players agree on the size of this crop. It is big, but just how big remains a question.
Barley
Canadian barley production is expected to rise 5.8 percent to 8.7 million tons in 2016. This growth is attributable to a 6.5 percent increase in average expected yield to 69.2 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, little change is expected in harvested area which has been reported at 5.8 million acres in 2016.
Wheat
Spring wheat was reported to be 65 percent harvested versus a normal of 46 percent on this date. North Dakota was 64 percent complete.
Stats Canada released its July crop estimates; the first for the Canadian reporting agency. Total wheat production is expected to reach 30.5 million tons in 2016, up 10.5 percent from last year. This measurement could mark the second time in 25 years that wheat production will exceed 30 million tons, the other being the bumper crop of 2013.
The reported increase in total wheat production resulted from a projected higher average yield of 48.9 bushels per acre in 2016, up 14.3 percent from 42.8 bushels per acre in 2015. In turn, harvested area declined 3.3 percent to 22.9 million acres, the lowest level in five years.
Canola
Canadian farmers anticipate producing 17.0 million tons of canola in 2016, down 1.2 percent from 2015. While the national average yield is projected to remain at 38.0 bushels per acre, lower expected harvested areas in Alberta and Manitoba are contributing to the decline in national production.
Canola production in Saskatchewan is expected to edge up 0.8 percent from 2015 to 8.9 million tons in 2016. This change is largely due to a 1.2 percent increase in harvested area, with average yield similar to the 36.3 bushels per acre in 2015.
In Alberta, canola production is anticipated to decline 1.0 percent from 2015 to 5.4 million tons as a result of a 4.6 percent drop in harvested acreage. Farmers anticipate average yields to increase 3.8 percent to 41.2 bushels per acre, up from 39.7 bushels per acre reported in 2015.
Manitoba farmers expect canola production to fall 7.8 percent to 2.6 million tons. The canola harvested area is anticipated to be 80,000 acres lower than a year ago, and average yield is expected to decline 5.5 percent to 38.1 bushels per acre.
Peas and lentils
Lentil production is expected to reach a record high in 2016, as farmers estimate output to increase 36.3 percent from a year earlier to 3.2 million tons. The rise in lentil production is the result of a 36.9 percent increase in harvested area to 5.4 million acres, as expected average yield was 0.5 percent lower this year at 1,326 pounds per acre.
Canadian pea production is up 44 percent to 4.6 million tons and its dry bean production is up 2.5 percent to 249,000 tons.
Mustard
Canadian mustard production looks to recover from the poor 2015 output with a 251,000 tons crop, up 103 percent from 2015.