Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag
Wheat The wheat market started the week under pressure as the Russian Ag Minister stated that 1.5 million metric tons of grain will be sold out of their reserves this month. The reason given was to lower storage costs. With the poorer quality they have experienced during harvest, this move was viewed by the trade as a gimmick to spur internal grain movement so they don't lose export market share.
Wheat The wheat market was showing slight gains to open the week when an announcement regarding the potential curtailing of Russian wheat exports gave the market a good shot in the arm during Oct. 2 trade. The market announcement stated that 30 grain loading points in the Krasnodar and Rostov area could face 90 day suspensions if violations of phytosanitary rules are confirmed.
Wheat The week market saw mostly positive action in overnight sessions this week only to be met with negative sentiment during day trade. It was a sideways to overall lower pattern for the week. The wheat market saw 4- to 9-cent gains in overnight trade Sept. 23-24, but backed off for minor gains to start the week on news the National Bank of Australia estimates Australian wheat production at 18.1 million metric tons, down from 18.4 million metric tons last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is currently at 20 million metric tons.
Wheat Much of the South experienced good to heavy rains from Tropical Storm Gordon over the weekend of Sept. 8-9, which led to selling pressure to begin the week on thoughts of replenished soil moisture in the Southern Plains.
Wheat The wheat complex saw heavy losses early last week on news that Russia's foreign ag minister announced that they will not curb wheat exports despite lower yields experienced this year. The market actually performed OK, rebounding from 25 cent losses early and closing above the ever so critical 200-day moving averages. Matif Wheat futures were down 1.36 percent at $200.50 per metric ton for December on the Russian news and trended down to the $198.25 low from Aug. 28 over the next two sessions.
Wheat Wheat futures experienced very choppy trade this week reaching 200—day moving averages which provided a level of underlying support. Matif wheat futures traded to a five week low at $197.00 per metric ton September before recovering. Spring wheat harvest is at 77 percent compared to the five-year average of 61 percent. Egypt purchased 290,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 60,000 metric tons of Ukrainian wheat. The Russian ruble remains at the bottom end of its recent range. The Black Sea Region continues to dominate into the Egyptian market.
Wheat Wheat futures trended lower all week following Matif Wheat futures lower. Matif wheat futures traded to a 3 week low in the $203.75 per metric ton September range. Technical buying came into the market at the 100-day moving averages of $5.4175 December Chicago in both Aug. 22 and 23 trade.
Wheat Matif wheat futures surged higher this week reaching $216.25 per metric ton on the September contract. The action in European wheat futures largely has the U.S. markets following. The Turkish currency plunged against the U.S. dollar which caused Russian wheat imports into Turkey to drastically decline. This backed off Matif wheat futures in August 8 and 9 trade.