Ray Grabanski, Progressive Ag
Wheat The southern cash markets have been improving recently, with premiums for 12 percent wheat rising 9 cents in the last week to $1.75 over December Kansas City futures. Poor basis on the Southern Plains is being attributed to much more lower protein wheat availability. Much more of the 12 percent or higher protein has already been sold. This perceived need for higher protein wheat post-harvest saw Minneapolis contracts making nice gains for the week.
Wheat The first winter wheat ratings of the season were released Oct. 30. Currently 52 percent of the winter wheat crop is rated as good to excellent versus last year's rating at this time of 58 percent good to excellent. Twelve percent of the crop is rated poor to very poor versus 9 percent last year.
Wheat The wheat market started out the week with 10 cent gains on Oct. 23 on short covering. Critical support levels of $4.25 Chicago and $6.09 Minneapolis held before the buying ensued. Both contracts had follow through buying through mid week, but stalled out when Chicago failed to close above the 50-day moving average of $4.4075.
Wheat The wheat market started out the week by backing off the $6.20 Minneapolis and $4.42 Chicago levels after short covering gains Oct. 13. Contracts closed lower after reaching these levels during Oct. 16 trade. From there the market drifted lower reaching critical support levels of $4.28 Chicago and $6.07 Minneapolis. The good thing was they held and pushed slightly higher late week.
Wheat The wheat market continued its downside move this week as rainfall in Australia, Russia and the Ukraine had traders in selling mode early week. On Oct. 12, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report indicating a record world stocks number that was additionally negative for the wheat complex.
Wheat The wheat markets struggled this week in follow through selling to the bearish Sept. 30 stocks report. December Chicago traded to $4.38 with $4.3825 and $4.3575 as support. We are now 22 cents off the recent $4.62 high in the front month, so one could expect this $4.30 to $4.60 range to trade for awhile. Minneapolis contracts are also finding a base of support at the $6.06 level as a trade gap of $6.06 to $6.14 from early June was filled in this week's trade.
Wheat The wheat market had good gains early week with ongoing crop concerns in Australia, Russia and the Ukraine. The Euro traded to a one-month low versus the U.S. dollar which supported European Union wheat futures and in turn U.S. wheat futures. Australian wheat futures also rallied to $286 U.S. December Chicago peaked at $4.62 which would be current resistance. Support is $4.45.
Wheat Wheat performed well this week, primarily on thoughts that fall winter wheat plantings will be lower in both the U.S. and the European Union. Paris futures were 0.6 percent higher on this sentiment. Australia continues to experience nightly frosts and dry conditions. Agrimoney reported that U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates of Australia exporting 18 million metric tons are likely on the high side and that their sources think the number will be closer to 14 million metric tons.
Wheat The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Sept. 12 released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand report. The September report typically doesn't have too much revision for wheat, but analysts were paying attention to world numbers.