Soybean export sales were in the middle of the range of estimates. Palm oil prices firmed up in Malaysia after a recent string of lower prices. The trade is still dealing with rumors of cancellations, but no confirmations. The Inspection and Quarantine Department in southern China at the port of Guangxi has said that it discovered a recent cargo of soybeans from Brazil contained live worms. The cargo was approved for offloading, and there is no word yet on how the government intends to deal with the trader or Brazil.RELATED CONTENT
Pork exports were phenomenal last year, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast the same for this year. However, the bears are not so easily convinced. They were watching pork prices fall in China (our largest export market).RELATED CONTENT
When it comes to ag commodities, meats have enjoyed strong prices for much of the year.
China has been in the spotlight for commodity markets for nearly two years now. It will continue to drive the grain markets, both up and down. Perhaps it is time to take a good look at what is going on with China.
The month of December is noted as a tradable month and one that tends to not be trendy. The recent rally in corn should come as no surprise since corn has declined $5.095 from the high. Too much in a brief time.
I must not remember history well. Either that, a president-elect hasn’t normally held so many press conferences before being sworn in.
Grain prices were driven this past week by weather rather than demand.
After an ambitious rally to the $13.96 level basis the July soybean futures,
Active trade developed midweek last week in Nebraska at $2 lower than the previous cash trade. This set the tone for the Plains and helped the futures to sell more into the June 1 close.
The soybean market started the week with a Chinese buying delegation visiting the Chicago Board of Trade May 14 and signing a new trade agreement for 5.76 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans worth an estimated $2.07 billion.
When with talk of private Chinese buyers having secured upwards of 10 cargoes of old-crop corn recently, futures still found it difficult to hold onto higher prices.RELATED CONTENT
Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension Service climatologist, warned farmers about planting too early. He says that while Iowa temperatures are breaking 1936 Dust Bowl records lately, farmers there should expect a freeze. He expects warm temperatures into this week then the weather could change. He notes that here has been only one year out of the past 100 when farmers could have planted on March 15 and everything would have been fine. One chance in a hundred is tough odds. That one year was 1946.RELATED CONTENT
Cattle and grain markets ended last week near the highs for the week. Perhaps some traders thought the grains would see weakness ahead of a three-day weekend, but the story was different.RELATED CONTENT
A chunk of the Midwest (especially west of the Mississippi River) is dry all the way to the Canadian border. What a change from last year, when it was so wet in North Dakota and northern Minnesota that farmers who had intended to plant corn had to switch to soybeans. What will this spring and summer be like?RELATED CONTENT
As of Jan. 24, the Global Forecast System model was not as wet as the European model for Brazil. Still, the weather situation in Argentina and Brazil is not as dire as it was a few weeks ago. A more regular rain pattern is noted with systems passing and producing rainfall every six to eight days. This should benefit the soybean crop, but damage to the corn crop is irreversible.RELATED CONTENT
News from Tehran, Iran, motivated the early rally in energy prices as the Iranian Supreme Court sentenced the Iranian-American accused of espionage to death and also declared that they would not give in to sanction pressure from Western nations and would continue to enrich uranium.RELATED CONTENT
I have been asked several times lately if I think corn and soybean prices can rally much after the recent lift from the $ll.52 low on November soybeans and the $5.72 low on December corn.
After the central banks in Europe announced they would support failing bank Dexia and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is ready to do more to support the faltering U.S. economy, the equity markets rallied.
The third quarter of the year ended on the defensive.
Another week of hard declines in most markets makes me wonder: Is this glass half full or half empty?