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Grabanski

Ray Grabanski

Ray Grabanski is president of Progressive Ag, A Fargo, N.D.-based hedge brokerage firm. Reach Grabanski at (800)450-1404.
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Markets retreat on favorable conditions

Wheat closed last week ending April 19 mixed, with the winter wheat contracts ending with small losses to small gains while Minneapolis lost ground. For the week ending April 19, May Minneapolis was off 15 cents, May Kansas City was 5.5 cents lower and May Chicago was 1 cent higher.

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Planting progresses

All three wheat exchanges struggled last week but most of the issues were in the winter wheat exchanges while Minneapolis experienced modest gains.

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USDA surprises market

Wheat traded lower in most of the session this week, except for March 30. Early selling was tied to improving conditions for the Southern Plains winter wheat crop and from position squaring ahead of the March 30 U.S. Department of Agriculture report while strength March 30 was because of a friendlier-than-expected acreage report from USDA.

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Markets retreat

The wheat markets had losses of 15 to 26 cents last week. The winter wheat markets had the larger losses due to beneficial rains in much of the winter wheat belt and losses in the corn market. Minneapolis wheat had lighter losses due to strong export sales and lingering concerns about dry soil conditions in the Northern Plains. Markets will likely spend this week positioning ahead of the March 30 reports.

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A wave of export sales

The corn market gained 10 cents last week. The futures came under pressure mid-week with larger acreage and production estimates for 2012. Buying interest did resurface late last week with fresh export sales.

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Production concerns support grains

Wheat started the week higher to sharply higher with most of the early session strength coming from weather concerns overseas. Rain has been slowing harvest activity in Europe and now is starting to cause quality concerns. In addition, dry concerns are starting to pop up in Australia. Gains were trimmed late in the session do to technical selling.

Swine flu pressures; weather supports

The wheat market took a turn for the worse as it started the week like most of the other commodities. Most of the losses April 27 were a result of concerns toward the recent swine flu pandemic. The fear is that if the swine flu issue continues to spread and more people get diagnosed with the disease, the world will slip back further into a recession and demand for U.S. ag products will decrease.

Soybean strength helps support grains

The wheat market started the week trading both sides of the fence, starting lower, rallying to post small gains around midsession, but then slipping slightly on the close to end the session lower in Minneapolis and Kansas City but stronger in Chicago.

USDA report priced in

The wheat market started the week off sloppy with many of the contracts off slightly. After trading back and forth for a time, most of the contracts settled in to trade with decent losses.

Wheat should stay on pace

Trade was dictated by bearish news from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Jan. 12. The wheat market opened the day lower on news of increased carry-over by USDA and traded near limit down for most of the session. In the grain stocks report, USDA increased its ending stocks estimate for wheat to 655 million bushels, which is 47 million bushels above pre-report estimates. World ending stocks also were increased by 1 million tons, which leaves world wheat stocks nearly 29 million tons higher than this time last year.

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Columns

USDA report gives market direction

The wheat markets traded on the defense throughout the week with most of the selling pressure tied to improving weather conditions in the U.S. and Europe.

Rough week for grains

Wheat started the week on the defense with selling tied to improving weather conditions for a majority of the wheat growing regions of the world. Generous rains fell over much of Europe over the weekend. The only friendly news for wheat came from rain in the Northern Plains states and Canada, as this will further delay planting progress.

Russia exporting wheat and weather

Wheat started the short trading week lower and extended session losses. Early selling was tied to weekend reports from Russia stating its intent to lift the export ban on wheat. The news pushed wheat lower and into sell stops, which only accelerated session losses. Rain over the weekend in parts of Europe added to the session’s pressure. Losses limited by slow planting progress of spring wheat in the Northern Plains, but in the end, the pressure from the market hitting sell stops proved to be too much to overcome.

Weather concerns drive market

Wheat started the week with strong gains with support coming from weather concerns. Session gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar.

Wheat takes charge

Wheat started the week with strong gains as buyer returned to the market after another week and weekend of adverse weather. Additional support was a result of world weather forecasts. Germany was expected to get decent rains in much of the driest regions over the weekend but instead little to no rain fell.

Outside markets pull grains down

Wheat opened the week lower and tried to rally but slipped to end lower. Wheat traded with decent strength early because of continued concerns toward planting progress in the Northern Plains and from drought concerns in the Southern Plains. Wheat sold off the second half of the session as pressure spilled over from the lower corn market.

Weather forecast pressures markets

Wheat started the week higher with strength spilling over from continued concerns toward this year’s U.S. production.

Weather influences trade

The wheat exchanges opened the short trading week with less-than-expected gains after seeing a strong overnight performance.

Fund selling pushes market lower

Wheat started the week lower on news of another earthquake in Japan. The news hit the wheat market hard, especially the hard wheat as Japan imports this variety.

USDA makes no changes

USDA’s April supply and demand report was seen as friendly to wheat as USDA surprised all by increasing seed demand by 4 million bushels.