WASDE report projects wheat exports upProjected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014 to ’15 have been raised this month with a sharp increase in forecast hard red spring wheat, more than offsetting a decrease for hard red winter.
By: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agweek
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014 to ’15 have been raised this month with a sharp increase in forecast hard red spring wheat, more than offsetting a decrease for hard red winter. The HRW crop was damaged by drought and April freezes in the southern and central plains; however, the HRS crop in the northern Plains has benefitted from abundant soil moisture and cooler than normal early summer temperatures.
Yields for durum and other spring wheat are forecast to be above average. Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2014 to ’15 is down 15 million bushels to 145 million as tight supplies of HRW wheat and relatively more attractive prices for feed grains reduce expected feed and residual use.
All wheat exports for 2014 to ’15 are down 25 million bushels, reflecting expectations of large world supplies and strong competition in export markets. Ending stocks are projected 86 million bushels higher. The projected season-average farm price range is down 40 cents at the midpoint to $6 to $7.20 per bushel.
Corn production is projected 75 million bushels lower based on harvested acres from the June 30 acreage report. The national average corn yield remains projected at a record 165.3 bushels per acre.
Favorable early July crop conditions and weather support an outlook for record yields across most of the Corn Belt, however, for much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. At the projected 13,860 million bushels, this year’s crop remains just 65 million bushels below last year’s record. Corn use changes for 2014 to ’15 are limited to a 50-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use, based on the lower production projection and higher projected sorghum feed and residual use. Sorghum food, seed and industrial use, exports and ending stocks are also up for 2014 to ’15 with sorghum production projected up 50 million bushels on the higher area reported in the acreage report.
Corn ending stocks are projected up 75 million bushels with a higher carryin and lower feed and residual use more than offsetting the small acreage-driven decline in production. The projected range for the season-average corn price is down 20 cents on each end to $3.65 to $4.35 per bushel. Lower farm prices are also projected for sorghum, barley and oats.