WASDE: Wheat down, corn holds steadyProjected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014 to ’15 are lower this month, as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by a reduction in forecast winter wheat production.
By: U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014 to ’15 are lower this month, as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by a reduction in forecast winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are up with a 10-million-bushel reduction in 2013 to’14 food use and offsetting 5-million-bushel reductions in 2013 to ’14 imports and exports. Projected production for 2014 to ’15 is down 21 million bushels as reduced prospects for hard red winter wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and white winter wheat in the Pacific Northwest more than outweigh higher forecast soft red winter wheat production across the South and Midwest. Projected food use is down 10 million bushels for 2014 to ’15 and for 2013 to ’14. This month’s reduced outlook for food use assumes a higher flour extraction rate for both marketing years. Exports for 2014 to ’15 are projected 25 million bushels lower with tighter supplies of hard red winter wheat and stronger competition from major exporters. The projected range for the 2014 to ’15 season-average farm price is down 30 cents on both ends based on the larger expected carryout, higher global production and recent sharp declines in futures prices.
The outlook for 2014 to ’15 U.S. feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged this month with only small changes made to barley and oats imports and exports for 2013 to ’14. Projected corn production for 2014 to ’15 is unchanged at a record 13,935 million bushels. The projected U.S. corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre as a slightly slower-than-normal, mid-May planting progress is expected to be offset by very favorable early season crop and weather conditions. U.S. crop conditions in the most recent crop progress report are the best in four years for the aggregated 18 reported states and better than any time since 2007 for the Corn Belt. The projected range for the 2014 to ’15 season-average farm price is unchanged. The 2013 to ’14 price range is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint based on prices reported to date and the recent decline in nearby cash and futures prices.