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Published May 27, 2014, 09:41 AM

Seeding falling behind

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — Seeding is falling behind in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The ground is wet and temperatures are still cool. Alberta is better.

By: John Duvenaud, Agweek

WINNIPEG, Manitoba — Seeding is falling behind in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The ground is wet and temperatures are still cool. Alberta is better.

North Dakota durum is only 14 percent seeded. Normally 41 percent would be done. The northwest, where most of the durum is grown, has had excess rain. A third of North Dakota is still too wet to seed.

The U.S. typically imports about 35 percent of its durum. Last year, U.S. durum production was 1.68 million metric tons.

Milling wheat review

The wheat futures market appears to be lacking demand at the current levels.

The market has experienced the rally because of dryness in the U.S. hard red winter wheat region and we need to see other major exporters experience adverse conditions to rejuvenate the upside potential.

There are dryness concerns in Europe, Russia and the Chinese spring wheat region where timely rains are needed in the next couple months.

Durum market remains stable

The durum market has remained stable while nondurum wheat prices have come under pressure. The U.S. and Europe have experienced a draw down in ending stocks during the 2013 to ’14 crop year, while Canadian ending stocks will remain above the 10-year average. For 2014 to ’15, the world needs Canada to have another large export program without disruptions to satisfy the needs of the major importers. Therefore, we see further upside in the durum market in the upcoming crop year.

Barley market surges

Southern Alberta barley prices surged in the past couple weeks.

Barley stocks in the major feeding regions have been drained, so feedlots are having to source from Eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Tight truck availability and rising rates have made it difficult to source from these distant regions into Alberta. Road bans and spring seeding have slowed farmer selling.

Lower seeded acreage and a year-over-year increase in domestic feed demand will continue to drive new crop values. Export prices are uncertain longer term, with problems developing in Russia, while major importers in the Middle East have yet to step forward for the bulk of their requirements for August through December.

Canola prices holding value

Old-crop canola prices are now trading at a premium to new crop.

We are expecting a larger canola export program in the last part of the 2013 to ’14 crop year. July canola futures have received support from the soybean complex where ending stocks are down to pipeline levels. We are waiting for further crop developments to make our final sales recommendation for the 2013 crop. For 2014, be 20 percent sold. A year-over-year increase in U.S. soybean acres has spilled over into new crop canola prices. While Western Canada has experienced below normal temperatures, traders are factoring in above average yields for canola and a surge in farmer selling during harvest.

Editor's note: Duvenaud is the publisher of the Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory. For a sample issue, call 1-800-567-5671 in Western Canada and North Dakota, 204-942-1459 for all others, or e-mail admin@canadagrain.com or visit canadagrain.com.

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