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Published February 17, 2014, 10:30 AM

Stocks are down as wheat, corn struggle

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013 to ’14 are projected 50 million bushels lower as higher than expected food use and exports more than offset an increase in projected imports.

By: U.S. Department of Agriculture,

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013 to ’14 are projected 50 million bushels lower as higher than expected food use and exports more than offset an increase in projected imports. Imports are up 10 million bushels as railroad backlogs and other logistical problems slow Canadian wheat shipments to Pacific Coast terminals and encourage additional shipments of hard red spring (HRS) wheat into the U.S. market. Projected food use increased 10 million bushels based on the latest flour production data reported by the North American Millers’ Association. Food use increases are projected for hard red winter and HRS wheat. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher as reduced competition from Argentina and strong sales and shipments further boost prospects for U.S. wheat in world trade. A reduction in expected exports from Australia during the July to June world trade year also raises prospects for 2013 to ’14 U.S. shipments. Exports are projected higher for all classes except durum. The season-average farm price for all wheat is narrowed 5 cents on both ends of the projected range to $6.65 to $6.95 per bushel.

Corn

U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2013 to ’14 are expected lower with a 150-million-bushel increase projected for corn exports. Global trade data and strong export sales support this month’s outlook for increased world corn imports. Reduced foreign export prospects also lower competition for U.S. corn in the world market. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 150 million bushels lower with the export increase. The season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents on both ends of the projected range to $4.20 to $4.80 per bushel. Season-average farm prices for the other feed grains are also projected slightly higher.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supplies are up 5 million bushels to 3.46 billion on higher projected imports, mainly from Canada. Soybean exports for 2013 to ’14 are projected at 1.51 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month, reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January. While global imports are unchanged, increased export projections for the U.S., Brazil and Paraguay are offset by a reduction for Argentina. Higher U.S. soybean meal exports are offset by reduced domestic use, leaving soybean crush unchanged at 1.7 billion bushels. Residual use is down 10 million bushels this month on tightening supplies driven by heavy use to date and large outstanding export sales. At 12 million bushels, projected residual use remains above the exceptionally low level of the past two marketing years. Projected soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 150 million bushels.

— USDA

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