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Published June 17, 2013, 10:06 AM

Modest global production expectations

Global wheat consumption for 2013-’14 is reduced slightly with reductions in feed and residual use for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting higher expected food use for India, Iran and Egypt.

Beginning wheat stocks are higher with a 15-million-bushel reduction in 2012-’13 exports as May shipments fell below expectations.

Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher for 2013-’14 with strong early season sales and a reduced outlook for foreign production this month. Ending stocks for 2013-’14 are projected down 11 million bushels. Projected stocks of 659 million bushels remain at a five-year low.

Global wheat consumption for 2013-’14 is reduced slightly with reductions in feed and residual use for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine more than offsetting higher expected food use for India, Iran and Egypt.

Global wheat trade is raised with imports increased 1 million tons for Iran. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in imports for the EU with lower exportable supplies in Ukraine.

Ukraine and Russia exports are lowered 1.5 million tons and 1 million tons, respectively. Export increases of 1.5 million tons for the EU and 0.5 million tons for Canada, combine with the U.S. increase this month to raise global exports 0.8 million tons.

World ending stocks for 2013-’14 are projected at 181.3 million tons, down 5.1 million from last month, and just above the level projected for 2012-’13.

With reduced production prospects, domestic corn usage is projected 70 million bushels lower for 2013-’14.

Projected feed and residual disappearance is lowered 125 million bushels with the smaller crop, higher expected prices, and increased availability of distillers’ grains. Corn used in ethanol production is raised 50 million bushels in line with an increase this month for the 2012-’13 marketing year.

Corn ending stocks for 2013-’14 are projected 55 million bushels lower. At the projected 1.9 billion bushels, ending stocks are expected to be 2.5 times their 2012-’13 level.

Changes for 2012-’13 include higher corn and oats imports, higher corn food, seed and industrial use, and reduced corn exports.

Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels based on the strong pace of imports to date and expectations that feeders in some locations will continue to supplement domestic supplies as old-crop corn becomes tighter during the summer months. Oats imports are raised 3 million bushels, reflecting shipments to date.

Corn used in ethanol production is raised 50 million bushels for 2012-’13 based, in part, on higher-than-expected May ethanol production, as indicated by weekly data reported by the Energy Information Administration.

— USDA

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