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Published March 18, 2013, 12:18 PM

USDA world supply and demand report shows wheat exports lower

U.S. wheat exports for 2012 to ‘13 are projected 25 million bushels lower for March, boosting projected ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong competition further reduces prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.

WASHINGTON — U.S. wheat exports for 2012 to ‘13 are projected 25 million bushels lower for March, boosting projected ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong competition further reduces prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.

Projected exports for hard red winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels. Exports are lowered 10 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively, for white and hard red spring wheat, but raised 15 million bushels for soft red winter wheat.

All wheat imports are unchanged, but small adjustments are made among the classes. Trade changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected range for the season average farm price for wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $7.95 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012 and ’13 are raised 1.8 million tons with higher production.

Projected 2012 and ’13 U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged for March, as an increase in imports and lower exports support higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels, reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January. Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on slow sales and shipments and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed wheat.

Sorghum exports are projected 10 million bushels higher based on the strong pace of sales and shipments. Smaller trade changes are projected for barley and oats based on shipments to date.

The projected season-average farm prices for corn and sorghum are each lowered 20 cents on the high end of the range to $6.75 to $7.45 per bushel and $6.70 to $7.40 per bushel, respectively.

U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012 and ’13 are unchanged for March, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year’s pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline as increased competition from a record South American soybean crop limits U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.

Soybean crush is ahead of last year’s pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, increases with the new crop harvest.

The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5 to 51.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent.

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